CLEARMARKET SIGNAL // WIRE LEDGER
Atomic wire bulletins · prediction-market surveillance · polymarket, kalshi, others · daily · permanent URLs
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wire feed | 341 active, descending chrono
| 2026-08-01 · TODAY [ 14 wires ] | |||||
| 09:56 UTC | CMSIG20260801DV00 | CROSS-VENUE | Arc token launch before 2027 trades far apart across venues Polymarket 30% vs Kalshi 47% | POLY · KAL | html · json |
| 09:56 UTC | CMSIG20260801DV01 | CROSS-VENUE | Discord IPO odds diverge heading into year-end window Polymarket 31% vs Kalshi 39% | POLY · KAL | html · json |
| 09:56 UTC | CMSIG20260801DV03 | CROSS-VENUE | Moderate-growth economy call stays split across the major desks Polymarket 56% vs Kalshi 62% | POLY · KAL | html · json |
| 09:56 UTC | CMSIG20260801DV02 | CROSS-VENUE | Recession outcome for end-2026 builds a premium on one venue Polymarket 6% vs Kalshi 12% | POLY · KAL | html · json |
| 09:55 UTC | CMSIG20260801VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Iran leadership-change odds hold near zero through a volume rush 5% · $272K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 09:55 UTC | CMSIG20260801VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Heavy trading backs McKinney as MI-13 Democratic nominee at 85% 85% · $89K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 09:55 UTC | CMSIG20260801VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Thanedar MI-13 nomination bid trades at 15% under fresh selling pressure 15% · $35K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 09:55 UTC | CMSIG20260801VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Odds stay near zero as volume tests US recognition of Russian Ukraine claim 9% · $49K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 09:55 UTC | CMSIG20260801VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Buyers back McKinney for MI-13 on Polymarket at 85% 85% · $45K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 09:55 UTC | CMSIG20260801VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders pile into Hamas disarmament by Dec 31 at 67% 67% · $563K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 09:55 UTC | CMSIG20260801VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | H200 compute price staying above $5.49 by Dec 31 locks near certainty 99% · $27K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 09:55 UTC | CMSIG20260801VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Fresh volume returns to H200 August average above $2.00 at 99% 99% · $16K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026080106 | NEWS-CYCLE | Hormuz traffic returning to normal by year-end sits near 50 percent Polymarket 47% | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026080102 | NEWS-CYCLE | Rate cut odds stay low as Trump pressure on Fed continues Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-07-31 · YESTERDAY [ 11 wires ] | |||||
| 10:35 UTC | CMSIG20260731DV02 | CROSS-VENUE | 2026 recession odds trade far apart on the major desks Polymarket 12% vs Kalshi 6% | POLY · KAL | html · json |
| 10:35 UTC | CMSIG20260731VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Israel-Hamas ceasefire Phase II by Dec 31 trades above 50% 62% · $20K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:35 UTC | CMSIG20260731VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Odds hold strong on Gemini 3.5 Pro shipping before Aug 31 87% · $22K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:35 UTC | CMSIG20260731VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Heavy trading tests Senate Judiciary Committee odds at a discount 33% · $23K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:35 UTC | CMSIG20260731VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders pile into a September Fed cut staying off the table 3% · $922K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:35 UTC | CMSIG20260731VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Betting picks up on July CPI holding above 3.3% 59% · $38K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 06:24 UTC | CMSIG2026073107 | NEWS-CYCLE | Senate CLARITY Act vote before August recess near long odds Kalshi 33% | KAL | html · json |
| 04:33 UTC | CMSIG2026073102 | NEWS-CYCLE | US CPI above 3 percent for year ending June holds near 50% Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026073101 | NEWS-CYCLE | Fed funds upper bound seen holding near 3.75 percent Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026073108 | NEWS-CYCLE | Midterm elections staying on schedule priced as near certainty Kalshi 90% | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026073107 | NEWS-CYCLE | Russian sanctions bill becoming law holds above 50 percent Kalshi 58% | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-07-30 · 2 DAYS AGO [ 13 wires ] | |||||
| 10:21 UTC | CMSIG20260730VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Shariatmadari Iran head of state odds crash to zero 0% · $1.4M 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:21 UTC | CMSIG20260730VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Gas prices staying above $4.10 draws heavy backing 94% · $100K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:21 UTC | CMSIG20260730VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Blackburn locks up the Tennessee GOP governor nod 93% · $55K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:21 UTC | CMSIG20260730VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Russia capturing Havrylivka by Sep 30 stays a long shot 6% · $48K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:21 UTC | CMSIG20260730VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Odds of a deep Fed cut by September stay near zero 1% · $293K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:21 UTC | CMSIG20260730VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | A 25 bps Fed hike in September leads the rate book 57% · $422K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:21 UTC | CMSIG20260730VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Fed hold in September stays a coin-flip bet 39% · $1.3M 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:00 UTC | CMSIG2026073004 | NEWS-CYCLE | Democrats firmly favored to win the US House in midterms Kalshi 83% | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026073007 | NEWS-CYCLE | Clarity Act signed into law this year stays below 30 percent Polymarket 28% | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026073006 | NEWS-CYCLE | Reza Pahlavi recognized as Iran leader remains a long shot Kalshi 7% | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026073008 | NEWS-CYCLE | US national Bitcoin reserve by 2027 stays a long shot at 17 percent Polymarket 17% | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026073005 | NEWS-CYCLE | Core CPI falling below 2.2 percent in 2026 stays a long shot Kalshi 20% | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026073002 | NEWS-CYCLE | Fed funds upper bound holds near 3.5 percent post-meeting Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-07-29 · 3 DAYS AGO [ 15 wires ] | |||||
| 10:36 UTC | CMSIG20260729DV01 | CROSS-VENUE | SHEIN IPO pricing stays near consensus across major desks Polymarket 91% vs Kalshi 84% | POLY · KAL | html · json |
| 10:36 UTC | CMSIG20260729VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Turkey joining Abraham Accords by 2027 stays a long shot 6% · $158K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:36 UTC | CMSIG20260729VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | RBA August hold near certain as fresh volume piles in at 96% 96% · $20K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:36 UTC | CMSIG20260729VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Borissov Bulgarian presidency bid priced out near zero 1% · $17K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:36 UTC | CMSIG20260729VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Democrats lead in TX-15 House race with odds above 50% 58% · $24K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:36 UTC | CMSIG20260729VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders back a Fed dissent alongside a July pause at 60% 60% · $24K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:36 UTC | CMSIG20260729VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Bouamrane 2027 French presidency priced out at 0% 0% · $26K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:36 UTC | CMSIG20260729VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Castets 2027 French presidency priced out at 0% 0% · $32K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:36 UTC | CMSIG20260729VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Odds hold low on Russia taking all of Kupiansk by Dec 31 10% · $34K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 07:16 UTC | CMSIG2026072908 | NEWS-CYCLE | Bitcoin above $67,500 by July 31 stays a long shot Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072903 | NEWS-CYCLE | Odds of an outsized Fed cut this year stay near the floor Kalshi 6% | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072905 | NEWS-CYCLE | Iranian regime survival holds as long odds stay at 9% Polymarket 9% | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072902 | NEWS-CYCLE | Fed July dissent odds hold near 50% on hawk pressure Kalshi 60% | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072901 | NEWS-CYCLE | Fed rate hike by settlement stays a long shot at 22% Polymarket 22% | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072905 | NEWS-CYCLE | Iowa Senate seat odds sit near 50-50 after Obama endorsement Polymarket 44% | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-07-28 · 4 DAYS AGO [ 11 wires ] | |||||
| 10:33 UTC | CMSIG2026072808 | NEWS-CYCLE | Major crypto exchange insolvency in 2026 stays a long shot Polymarket 5% | POLY | html · json |
| 10:31 UTC | CMSIG20260728DV01 | CROSS-VENUE | Stripe IPO timeline carries a premium on the low-volume desk Polymarket 5% vs Kalshi 13% | POLY · KAL | html · json |
| 10:31 UTC | CMSIG20260728VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Average US gas prices staying above $4.04 prices near-certain 98% · $23K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:31 UTC | CMSIG20260728VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Lydie Massard as French left nominee prices at zero 0% · $19K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:31 UTC | CMSIG20260728VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders back Russia taking all of Huliaipole by September 30 84% · $74K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:31 UTC | CMSIG20260728VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Colorado Dem governorship holds heavy odds on fresh volume 91% · $17K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:31 UTC | CMSIG20260728VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Democratic Ohio governorship odds hold near 50% 50% · $68K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:31 UTC | CMSIG20260728VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Trump 50-state visit tracker prices at near-certainty 95% · $18K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:31 UTC | CMSIG20260728VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Ohio GOP governorship race trades at a coin flip 51% · $133K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072806 | NEWS-CYCLE | US invasion of Iran before 2027 stays a long shot at 21% Polymarket 21% | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072808 | NEWS-CYCLE | McConnell resignation before midterms stays a long shot Kalshi 15% | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-07-27 · 5 DAYS AGO [ 7 wires ] | |||||
| 11:16 UTC | CMSIG20260727VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Iran uranium surrender by August 31 trades at near-zero odds 3% · $48K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 11:16 UTC | CMSIG20260727VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Heavy trading tests the $4.06 gas threshold at 90% odds 90% · $15K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 11:16 UTC | CMSIG20260727VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Gas prices staying above $4.02 draws near-certain odds 99% · $22K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 11:16 UTC | CMSIG20260727VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Buyers back the gas-above-$4.00 contract at near-certainty 99% · $27K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072705 | NEWS-CYCLE | Supreme Court hearing Trump tariff case in 2026 stays a long shot Kalshi 20% | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072702 | NEWS-CYCLE | September hike odds build as July hold nears consensus Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072704 | NEWS-CYCLE | US effective tariff rate seen landing in the 7.5-10 percent range Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-07-26 · 6 DAYS AGO [ 10 wires ] | |||||
| 09:57 UTC | CMSIG20260726DV02 | CROSS-VENUE | Deel IPO before 2027 trades far apart on prediction desks Polymarket 4% vs Kalshi 10% | POLY · KAL | html · json |
| 09:57 UTC | CMSIG20260726DV00 | CROSS-VENUE | GlobalFoundries federal stake prices higher on low-volume desk Kalshi 71% vs Polymarket 78% | KAL · POLY | html · json |
| 09:57 UTC | CMSIG20260726DV03 | CROSS-VENUE | GameStop acquiring eBay stays near long-shot odds, splits across venues Polymarket 12% vs Kalshi 17% | POLY · KAL | html · json |
| 09:56 UTC | CMSIG20260726VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Gas prices above $4.08 priced as certain 99% · $16K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 09:56 UTC | CMSIG20260726VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Odds hold low on a Trump 2028 run announcement 9% · $27K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 09:56 UTC | CMSIG20260726VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Trump Truth Social post count near certainty at 99% 99% · $19K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 09:56 UTC | CMSIG20260726VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Buyers back Alito retirement odds at 35% 35% · $15K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072601 | NEWS-CYCLE | Fed pause firmly priced in at 3.5 to 3.75 percent Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072604 | NEWS-CYCLE | Iran uranium enrichment end by year-end stays a long shot Polymarket 22% | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072604 | NEWS-CYCLE | Fed action between April and July prices in heavily Polymarket 77% | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-07-25 · 7 DAYS AGO [ 7 wires ] | |||||
| 09:43 UTC | CMSIG20260725VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Iowa Senate GOP odds hold at 60% through a volume surge 60% · $153K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 09:43 UTC | CMSIG20260725VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | KRG independence by year-end stays a long shot at 8% 8% · $70K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 09:43 UTC | CMSIG20260725VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Iran leadership change by September 30 sits at 11% on fresh bets 11% · $28K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 09:43 UTC | CMSIG20260725VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Gas above $4.110 holds at 80% as traders back the threshold 80% · $18K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 09:43 UTC | CMSIG20260725VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Democratic Iowa Senate odds sit at 42% as fresh bets pile in 42% · $108K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 09:43 UTC | CMSIG20260725VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Trump, Netanyahu in-person meeting before Aug 1 stays at 97% 97% · $51K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 09:43 UTC | CMSIG20260725VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Jadot 2027 French presidential bid priced out at 0% 0% · $79K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-07-24 · 8 DAYS AGO [ 12 wires ] | |||||
| 10:14 UTC | CMSIG20260724DV03 | CROSS-VENUE | Anduril IPO long-shot prices diverge across venues Polymarket 10% vs Kalshi 4% | POLY · KAL | html · json |
| 10:14 UTC | CMSIG20260724VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Bitcoin Jul 24 price holds right at 50% on Kalshi 50% · $109K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:14 UTC | CMSIG20260724VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Buyers pile into Bitcoin's 95% band on Jul 24 close 95% · $36K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:14 UTC | CMSIG20260724VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Fresh volume backs Bitcoin above its 90% band today 90% · $49K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:14 UTC | CMSIG20260724VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders back Bitcoin above its Jul 24 band at 76% 76% · $92K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:14 UTC | CMSIG20260724VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Heavy trading backs McConnell Senate exit at 41% 41% · $230K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:14 UTC | CMSIG20260724VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | OpenAI IPO by July 31 priced out at 0% on Polymarket 0% · $65K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:14 UTC | CMSIG20260724VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Georgia Senate GOP odds stay low at 10% under volume 10% · $32K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072401 | NEWS-CYCLE | Markets put 3-in-4 odds on a Fed rate hike in 2026 Polymarket 73% | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072407 | NEWS-CYCLE | MicroStrategy bankruptcy before 2027 stays a long shot at 4 percent Polymarket 4% | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072406 | NEWS-CYCLE | Ukraine ceding territory to Russia by year-end stays below 25 percent Polymarket 11% | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072406 | NEWS-CYCLE | US embassy reopening in Iran stays a heavy long shot at 5% Kalshi 5% | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-07-23 · 9 DAYS AGO [ 6 wires ] | |||||
| 10:17 UTC | CMSIG20260723VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Zyn 160M shipment line draws heavy late trading 98% · $24K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:17 UTC | CMSIG20260723VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Zyn 165M shipment bar stays a near-certainty 98% · $25K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 05:32 UTC | CMSIG2026072308 | NEWS-CYCLE | Ukraine peace deal before 2027 stays under 25% Polymarket 23% | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072302 | NEWS-CYCLE | Hormuz July normalization priced as near-certain no Polymarket 1% | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072302 | NEWS-CYCLE | Unemployment rate odds cluster near 4.1 to 4.2 percent for October Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072308 | NEWS-CYCLE | Trump publicly calling out Thune stays below 40% Kalshi 39% | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-07-22 · 10 DAYS AGO [ 7 wires ] | |||||
| 10:22 UTC | CMSIG20260722VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders push back on the fed funds rate staying above 3.75% 15% · $44K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:22 UTC | CMSIG20260722VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Odds stay near zero on a Fed hike above 25bps in July 1% · $32K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:22 UTC | CMSIG20260722VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Betting locks in Amish Shah as the AZ-01 Democratic pick 97% · $46K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:22 UTC | CMSIG20260722VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Jay Feely's Republican AZ-01 nomination trades at certainty 100% · $27K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072207 | NEWS-CYCLE | Consensus backs at least one reconciliation bill passing in 2026 Kalshi 73% | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072208 | NEWS-CYCLE | Bitcoin crossing $100K again stays a long shot below 25% Kalshi 17% | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072203 | NEWS-CYCLE | US strikes fewer than 8 countries in 2026 stays favored Polymarket ladder | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-07-21 · 11 DAYS AGO [ 5 wires ] | |||||
| 10:22 UTC | CMSIG20260721VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | European Ukraine security pledge sits deep in tail-risk territory 8% · $37K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:22 UTC | CMSIG20260721VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders stack tail-risk odds on ETH fading to $1,250 26% · $189K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:22 UTC | CMSIG20260721VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Democrats defended as heavy NC Senate capital locks in 91% · $920K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:22 UTC | CMSIG20260721VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | John James Michigan GOP nominee status draws conviction bids 84% · $102K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072104 | NEWS-CYCLE | Fed funds upper bound seen settling near 3.25 to 3.5 percent Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-07-20 · 12 DAYS AGO [ 2 wires ] | |||||
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072008 | NEWS-CYCLE | Markets firmly price 2026 crypto hack losses above $1.5B Polymarket ladder | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026072003 | NEWS-CYCLE | Odds of gas above $4.60 this year slip below 50% Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-07-19 · 13 DAYS AGO [ 2 wires ] | |||||
| 09:49 UTC | CMSIG20260719VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Dan Osborn independent Senate bid absorbs fresh speculative flow 29% · $31K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 09:49 UTC | CMSIG20260719VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Allam Vancouver mayor bid draws early speculative positioning 27% · $13K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-07-18 · 14 DAYS AGO [ 6 wires ] | |||||
| 09:20 UTC | CMSIG20260718VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Heavy flows discount a Ukraine peace referendum before 2027 7% · $31K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 09:20 UTC | CMSIG20260718VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Crowley Wisconsin Dem nomination sits at long-shot odds 21% · $37K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 09:20 UTC | CMSIG20260718VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Capital writes off Jalili's hold on Iranian leadership 0% · $189K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 08:54 UTC | CMSIG2026071807 | NEWS-CYCLE | Bitcoin above $100K by year-end wavers in thin pricing Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026071804 | NEWS-CYCLE | October payrolls implied range holds near 70K-80K in Kalshi pricing Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026071808 | NEWS-CYCLE | Crypto market structure law by 2027 anchors at modest 38 percent Kalshi 38% | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-07-17 · 15 DAYS AGO [ 4 wires ] | |||||
| 09:53 UTC | CMSIG20260717VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Capital writes off Khatami as Iran head of state by year-end 0% · $1.4M 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 02:01 UTC | CMSIG2026071706 | NEWS-CYCLE | Court fraud ruling on 2020 election stays firmly rejected Polymarket 14% | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026071704 | NEWS-CYCLE | Proof-of-citizenship voting rule wavers at slim 15 percent Kalshi 15% | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026071706 | NEWS-CYCLE | Johnson speaker exit in 2026 holds at low probability Kalshi 9% | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-07-16 · 16 DAYS AGO [ 6 wires ] | |||||
| 17:21 UTC | CMSIG20260716VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders stack conviction behind Lamb locking up AZ-05 GOP nod 89% · $12K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 13:07 UTC | CMSIG2026071607 | NEWS-CYCLE | Election interference emergency declaration stays a long shot Polymarket 14% | POLY | html · json |
| 03:45 UTC | CMSIG2026071603 | NEWS-CYCLE | NATO Article 5 invocation risk holds at deep discount Polymarket 8% | POLY | html · json |
| 03:30 UTC | CMSIG2026071607 | NEWS-CYCLE | Tariff sector expansion pricing holds below majority Kalshi 28% | KAL | html · json |
| 01:05 UTC | CMSIG2026071608 | NEWS-CYCLE | Bitcoin outperforming gold in 2026 consensus wavers at one-in-four Kalshi 26% | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026071604 | NEWS-CYCLE | Later-meeting Fed funds range anchors near 3.50-3.75 percent Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-07-15 · 17 DAYS AGO [ 3 wires ] | |||||
| 10:00 UTC | CMSIG20260715VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Bitcoin $80K by year-end faces heavy fade pressure at one-in-three 33% · $29K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:00 UTC | CMSIG20260715VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | China Q2 GDP 4.3, 4.6% band locked in at full conviction 100% · $36K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:00 UTC | CMSIG20260715VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Barbalho second-place finish written off, capital stacks against 0% · $11K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-07-14 · 18 DAYS AGO [ 7 wires ] | |||||
| 18:40 UTC | CMSIG2026071407 | NEWS-CYCLE | South Carolina 6th District new House winner nears full pricing Kalshi 92% | KAL | html · json |
| 13:13 UTC | CMSIG2026071403 | NEWS-CYCLE | Nonfarm productivity above 3% in 2026 trades near 50% Kalshi 45% | KAL | html · json |
| 09:55 UTC | CMSIG20260714VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Bitcoin $85K by year-end sits deep in tail-risk territory 21% · $26K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 09:55 UTC | CMSIG20260714VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Rodriguez Wisconsin primary bid draws skeptical capital at 17% 17% · $11K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 09:55 UTC | CMSIG20260714VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Above-3.8% June CPI absorbs heavy capital near resolution 29% · $22K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 09:55 UTC | CMSIG20260714VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders lock in June CPI breach above 3.6% as near-certainty 99% · $80K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 05:01 UTC | CMSIG2026071405 | NEWS-CYCLE | CPI above 3.7 percent for year ending July nears consensus Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-07-13 · 19 DAYS AGO [ 7 wires ] | |||||
| 22:26 UTC | CMSIG2026071303 | NEWS-CYCLE | Rate path under Chair Warsh wavers near 3.5-3.75 percent Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 10:57 UTC | CMSIG20260713DV02 | CROSS-VENUE | Databricks listing odds bridge inversely across venues Polymarket 13% vs Kalshi 6% | POLY · KAL | html · json |
| 10:56 UTC | CMSIG20260713VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders write off Pourmohammadi as Iran head of state by year-end 0% · $1.3M 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:56 UTC | CMSIG20260713VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Heavy flows defend MBS retaining de facto Saudi leadership by December 5% · $51K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:56 UTC | CMSIG20260713VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Robinhood funded-customer beat sits near certainty ahead of Q2 print 98% · $16K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 08:30 UTC | CMSIG2026071304 | NEWS-CYCLE | Bitcoin floor at $60K by year-end fractures toward lower range Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 02:15 UTC | CMSIG2026071302 | NEWS-CYCLE | Core CPI pricing anchors near 2.7-2.8 percent ahead of hot print Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-07-12 · 20 DAYS AGO [ 6 wires ] | |||||
| 09:48 UTC | CMSIG20260712VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders discount Trump's UFC 329 appearance as near-zero risk 1% · $87K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 09:48 UTC | CMSIG20260712VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Motahari head-of-state bid written off by Iran watchers 0% · $571K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 09:48 UTC | CMSIG20260712VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Graham Senate majority leader bid priced into long-shot territory 1% · $42K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 09:48 UTC | CMSIG20260712VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Republicans defend South Carolina Senate seat at heavy odds 81% · $50K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 09:48 UTC | CMSIG20260712VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Core CPI above 2.6% for June year, near-certain settlement 99% · $14K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 01:26 UTC | CMSIG2026071208 | NEWS-CYCLE | SAVE Act becoming law prices as a deep long-shot on Kalshi Kalshi 8% | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-07-11 · 21 DAYS AGO [ 3 wires ] | |||||
| 09:24 UTC | CMSIG20260711VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | SRZP Duma plurality: capital stacks against opposition path 0% · $376K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 09:24 UTC | CMSIG20260711VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders write off Civic Platform's Duma plurality bid 0% · $413K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 09:24 UTC | CMSIG20260711VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Heavy flows defend the Kim Jong Un leadership status quo 0% · $35K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-07-09 · 23 DAYS AGO [ 5 wires ] | |||||
| 10:57 UTC | CMSIG20260709VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Odds of a Fed hike by October hold near 50% 46% · $83K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:57 UTC | CMSIG20260709VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Díaz-Canel departure before 2027 seen as remote by heavy flows 0% · $615K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:57 UTC | CMSIG20260709VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Missouri D4 drought by early July draws deep-conviction hedging 71% · $64K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 02:12 UTC | CMSIG2026070908 | NEWS-CYCLE | Platner-plus-Dem-win combo holds at modest discount in Maine Kalshi 64% | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026070908 | NEWS-CYCLE | National Bitcoin Reserve creation skepticism holds at low odds Kalshi 13% | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-07-08 · 24 DAYS AGO [ 8 wires ] | |||||
| 10:14 UTC | CMSIG20260708VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Capital writes off Abbas departure before 2027 0% · $5.2M 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:14 UTC | CMSIG20260708VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Fed hike by September sits at 35% on fresh flows 35% · $60K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:14 UTC | CMSIG20260708VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Bahrain regime flows defend stability through year-end 5% · $35K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:14 UTC | CMSIG20260708VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Bardella ballot access fades to 8% on heavy volume 8% · $11K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:14 UTC | CMSIG20260708VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Le Pen ballot eligibility defended at 89% conviction 89% · $11K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:14 UTC | CMSIG20260708VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Kalshi flows target Le Pen 2027 win at 35% 35% · $12K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:14 UTC | CMSIG20260708VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders stack Le Pen 2027 conviction at 27% 27% · $363K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:14 UTC | CMSIG20260708VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | ECB July hold priced near certainty at 98% 98% · $21K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-07-07 · 25 DAYS AGO [ 7 wires ] | |||||
| 10:52 UTC | CMSIG20260707VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | UAE-Saudi diplomatic rupture in 2026 stays deep in tail risk 4% · $58K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:52 UTC | CMSIG20260707VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Platner nominee plus Democratic general win priced as coin-flip 60% · $91K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:52 UTC | CMSIG20260707VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Maine Senate Democratic hold sits at narrow majority odds 57% · $274K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:52 UTC | CMSIG20260707VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders price Platner exit as near-certain in Maine Senate 91% · $1.9M 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:52 UTC | CMSIG20260707VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Polymarket stacks Democratic Maine Senate odds at 60% 60% · $149K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:52 UTC | CMSIG20260707VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Fed 50+ bps July hike fades to zero as traders absorb guidance 0% · $2.3M 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:00 UTC | CMSIG2026070705 | NEWS-CYCLE | Graham Platner dropout consensus hardens near full pricing Kalshi 92% | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-07-06 · 26 DAYS AGO [ 3 wires ] | |||||
| 12:00 UTC | CMSIG20260706VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Capital writes off Sheinbaum exit before 2027 0% · $773K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 12:00 UTC | CMSIG20260706VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders stack against Ahmadinejad Iran return by year-end 0% · $200K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 06:59 UTC | CMSIG2026070606 | NEWS-CYCLE | US negative GDP in 2026 remains a low-conviction fringe bet Polymarket 8% | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-07-05 · 27 DAYS AGO [ 3 wires ] | |||||
| 18:03 UTC | CMSIG2026070507 | NEWS-CYCLE | Haley Stevens second-place Michigan primary finish hardens sharply Kalshi 88% | KAL | html · json |
| 10:08 UTC | CMSIG20260705VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders write off Milei as next leader out before 2027 0% · $2.3M 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 02:47 UTC | CMSIG2026070505 | NEWS-CYCLE | Trump NATO summit attendance nears full pricing Polymarket 99% | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-07-04 · 28 DAYS AGO [ 5 wires ] | |||||
| 18:07 UTC | CMSIG2026070406 | NEWS-CYCLE | June CPI monthly change consensus anchors near negative territory Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 18:00 UTC | CMSIG2026070407 | NEWS-CYCLE | Satoshi Bitcoin movement by year-end consensus holds deeply skeptical Polymarket 6% | POLY | html · json |
| 10:06 UTC | CMSIG20260704DV03 | CROSS-VENUE | Applied Intuition IPO decouples across venues on thin flow Polymarket 18% vs Kalshi 11% | POLY · KAL | html · json |
| 10:05 UTC | CMSIG20260704VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Tail risk stacks in US-ally nuclear acquisition by 2027 6% · $57K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:05 UTC | CMSIG20260704VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders write off Netanyahu as next leader out before 2027 0% · $2.4M 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-07-03 · 29 DAYS AGO [ 3 wires ] | |||||
| 10:32 UTC | CMSIG20260703VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders write off a Trump pre-2027 exit as near-zero 0% · $1.3M 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:32 UTC | CMSIG20260703VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Heavy flows defend an 8% Fed hike probability into July 8% · $82K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 04:02 UTC | CMSIG2026070303 | NEWS-CYCLE | Senate Republican re-election losses consensus wavers near 38% Kalshi 38% | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-07-01 · 31 DAYS AGO [ 8 wires ] | |||||
| 16:20 UTC | CMSIG2026070102 | NEWS-CYCLE | Market absorbs Warsh independence stance, Trump-fires-Powell risk stays low Kalshi 9% | KAL | html · json |
| 11:21 UTC | CMSIG20260701VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Heavy flows discount Lebanon-Israel recognition after June 30 3% · $513K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 11:21 UTC | CMSIG20260701VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Market stacks against Ohana ascending to Israeli PM 0% · $538K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 11:21 UTC | CMSIG20260701VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Kirkmeyer flows challenge Marx's Colorado GOP lead 45% · $92K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 11:21 UTC | CMSIG20260701VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders discount ETH crashing to $500 by year-end 9% · $76K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 11:21 UTC | CMSIG20260701VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Flows test Alito retirement odds ahead of recess 34% · $47K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 11:21 UTC | CMSIG20260701VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Fed funds upper bound above 2.75% sits near certainty 99% · $49K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:00 UTC | CMSIG2026070107 | NEWS-CYCLE | Paxton Republican Texas Senate win consensus holds at majority odds Kalshi 62% | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-06-29 · 33 DAYS AGO [ 10 wires ] | |||||
| 20:14 UTC | CMSIG2026062906 | NEWS-CYCLE | Hormuz traffic normal by June 30 sits at zero pricing Polymarket 0% | POLY | html · json |
| 12:30 UTC | CMSIG20260629DV00 | CROSS-VENUE | Tesla-SpaceX merger stance splits sharply across venues Polymarket 28% vs Kalshi 10% | POLY · KAL | html · json |
| 12:29 UTC | CMSIG20260629VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Skeptical flows defend against Russian Myropillia capture 6% · $20K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 08:27 UTC | CMSIG2026062907 | NEWS-CYCLE | 2Y Treasury month-end yield consensus anchors at 4.10-4.15 percent Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 04:52 UTC | CMSIG2026062901 | NEWS-CYCLE | Iranian regime survival consensus holds at full pricing Polymarket 100% | POLY | html · json |
| 01:47 UTC | CMSIG20260629VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | H200 compute pricing above $4.79 commands near-certain flows 96% · $18K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 01:47 UTC | CMSIG20260629VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Flows defend Victor Marx as Colorado GOP primary locks in 93% · $41K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 01:47 UTC | CMSIG20260629VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders write off Lai Ching-te removal through year-end 4% · $34K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 01:47 UTC | CMSIG20260629VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | US-Cuba economic deal sits in deep skepticism territory 10% · $14K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 01:47 UTC | CMSIG20260629VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | CDU Berlin plurality faces contested capital with even odds 42% · $17K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-06-28 · 34 DAYS AGO [ 6 wires ] | |||||
| 23:54 UTC | CMSIG2026062805 | NEWS-CYCLE | SCOTUS mail ballot bar consensus hardens near 80 percent Kalshi 79% | KAL | html · json |
| 10:25 UTC | CMSIG20260628VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders defend the zero on Kushner entering Iran by June 30 0% · $247K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:25 UTC | CMSIG20260628VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Heavy flows defend H200 compute above $4.99 into June close 94% · $41K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:25 UTC | CMSIG20260628VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Markets write off Netanyahu entering Iran by June 30 0% · $4.9M 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:25 UTC | CMSIG20260628VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | H200 at $4.19 floor absorbs final-day selling at near-certain levels 96% · $18K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:02 UTC | CMSIG2026062807 | NEWS-CYCLE | SCOTUS Birthright Citizenship EO strike-down nears full pricing Polymarket 94% | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-06-27 · 35 DAYS AGO [ 10 wires ] | |||||
| 10:03 UTC | CMSIG20260627VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Solana all-time-high by June 30 sits in dead-money territory 0% · $223K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:03 UTC | CMSIG20260627VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders write off a Vance Iran entry by June 30 0% · $751K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:03 UTC | CMSIG20260627VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Capital stacks on Tesla falling short of 475K Q2 deliveries 26% · $24K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:03 UTC | CMSIG20260627VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Tesla 400K, 425K delivery band targeted by late Q2 capital 29% · $10K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:03 UTC | CMSIG20260627VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | WTI $70 floor by year-end defended at near-certainty 99% · $21K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 10:03 UTC | CMSIG20260627VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Heavy flows lean against a U.S. invasion of Colombia in 2026 5% · $35K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 01:36 UTC | CMSIG20260627VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Crude Oil $35 June low dismissed as an extreme tail scenario 0% · $32K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 01:36 UTC | CMSIG20260627VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Gold $6,200 June settle written off with three days left 0% · $131K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 01:36 UTC | CMSIG20260627VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Silver $120 June expiry stacked firmly in the 'No' column 0% · $25K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 01:36 UTC | CMSIG20260627VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | US annexation in 2026 sits in deep tail territory at 7% 7% · $45K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-06-26 · 36 DAYS AGO [ 12 wires ] | |||||
| 16:02 UTC | CMSIG2026062607 | NEWS-CYCLE | Blue tsunami in 2026 wavers below majority pricing at midterms Kalshi 36% | KAL | html · json |
| 12:51 UTC | CMSIG2026062608 | NEWS-CYCLE | US CBDC ban by end of 2026 nears full pricing on Congress move Kalshi 97% | KAL | html · json |
| 10:48 UTC | CMSIG20260626DV01 | CROSS-VENUE | Ramp IPO pricing decouples on the major prediction desks Polymarket 11% vs Kalshi 19% | POLY · KAL | html · json |
| 10:48 UTC | CMSIG20260626VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders stack near-certainty on $1.8T SpaceX floor 98% · $727K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:48 UTC | CMSIG20260626VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | SpaceX IPO valuation battle sits squarely at $2.2T 67% · $722K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:48 UTC | CMSIG20260626VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | SpaceX $2.4T target sits in contested tail territory 21% · $696K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:48 UTC | CMSIG20260626VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Heavy flows defend a $2T SpaceX IPO floor 93% · $926K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:48 UTC | CMSIG20260626VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Market discounts a $4T SpaceX IPO as implausible 0% · $429K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:48 UTC | CMSIG20260626VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Kenyon underdog positioning draws capital in Makerfield 27% · $332K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:48 UTC | CMSIG20260626VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders lock in Project Freedom restart by June 30 100% · $3.1M 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 10:48 UTC | CMSIG20260626VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Capital writes off any Musk acquisition of OnlyFans 0% · $657K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 02:35 UTC | CMSIG2026062606 | NEWS-CYCLE | Inflation surge in 2026 above 4.5 percent nears pricing out Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-06-25 · 37 DAYS AGO [ 2 wires ] | |||||
| 21:47 UTC | CMSIG2026062506 | NEWS-CYCLE | Any Hormuz transit by June 30 consensus wavers at long-shot Polymarket 28% | POLY | html · json |
| 20:16 UTC | CMSIG2026062505 | NEWS-CYCLE | Iran unrestricted Hormuz shipping by June 30 fractures Polymarket 31% | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-06-24 · 38 DAYS AGO [ 5 wires ] | |||||
| 14:18 UTC | CMSIG2026062401 | NEWS-CYCLE | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 wavers on inspection dispute Polymarket 51% | POLY | html · json |
| 10:47 UTC | CMSIG20260624BD00 | BENCHMARK-DRIFT | Traders pile into US GDP breaking above 2% 76% · Real GDP growth, annualized (FRED) 1.6% | KAL | html · json |
| 03:50 UTC | CMSIG2026062403 | NEWS-CYCLE | Iran war powers resolution passage odds anchored near zero Polymarket 10% | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026062405 | NEWS-CYCLE | Iran ends uranium enrichment by June 30 pricing holds deep discount Polymarket 24% | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026062406 | NEWS-CYCLE | Progressive Senate primary sweep consensus wavers at majority odds Kalshi 56% | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-06-23 · 39 DAYS AGO [ 2 wires ] | |||||
| 18:10 UTC | CMSIG2026062303 | NEWS-CYCLE | Trump approval pricing breaks away below 43 percent Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 05:22 UTC | CMSIG2026062303 | NEWS-CYCLE | Iran uranium enrichment halt by July 31 stays well below even odds Polymarket 29% | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-06-22 · 40 DAYS AGO [ 1 wire ] | |||||
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026062206 | NEWS-CYCLE | Core PCE above zero in May nears full pricing consensus Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-06-21 · 41 DAYS AGO [ 1 wire ] | |||||
| 05:18 UTC | CMSIG2026062103 | NEWS-CYCLE | Pre-2027 US-Iran deal consensus anchors above 70 percent Polymarket 71% | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-06-20 · 42 DAYS AGO [ 1 wire ] | |||||
| 15:36 UTC | CMSIG2026062005 | NEWS-CYCLE | Fed emergency meeting odds hold low despite Warsh guidance vacuum Kalshi 10% | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-06-19 · 43 DAYS AGO [ 2 wires ] | |||||
| 09:25 UTC | CMSIG2026061905 | NEWS-CYCLE | Israel-Hezbollah diplomatic meeting pricing near zero amid fresh strikes Polymarket 4% | POLY | html · json |
| 07:53 UTC | CMSIG2026061903 | NEWS-CYCLE | BTC end-June floor pricing wavers below $57.5K implied range Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-06-18 · 44 DAYS AGO [ 2 wires ] | |||||
| 19:54 UTC | CMSIG2026061808 | NEWS-CYCLE | ETH end-2026 downside floor pricing nears $1000-$1250 implied range Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026061807 | NEWS-CYCLE | Florida 14th House race fractured at dead even pricing Polymarket 51% | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-06-17 · 45 DAYS AGO [ 3 wires ] | |||||
| 06:35 UTC | CMSIG2026061701 | NEWS-CYCLE | June Fed funds hold at 3.50-3.75 percent nears full pricing Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 05:20 UTC | CMSIG2026061708 | NEWS-CYCLE | USDC at 50 percent of USDT market cap in 2026 holds at even odds Polymarket 53% | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026061702 | NEWS-CYCLE | Dissent at Warsh debut FOMC anchors at two-thirds odds Kalshi 67% | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-06-16 · 46 DAYS AGO [ 5 wires ] | |||||
| 20:38 UTC | CMSIG2026061608 | NEWS-CYCLE | Georgia Senate contest anchors Republican edge at 78 percent Kalshi 78% | KAL | html · json |
| 09:02 UTC | CMSIG2026061605 | NEWS-CYCLE | Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30 priced near zero Polymarket 2% | POLY | html · json |
| 04:48 UTC | CMSIG2026061606 | NEWS-CYCLE | Bitcoin June 16 level pricing clusters at $64K to $66K Polymarket ladder | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026061607 | NEWS-CYCLE | Bitcoin near $64K-$66K on June 17 splits the ladder Polymarket ladder | POLY | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026061606 | NEWS-CYCLE | Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by year-end wavers near even split Polymarket 47% | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-06-15 · 47 DAYS AGO [ 1 wire ] | |||||
| 09:16 UTC | CMSIG2026061504 | NEWS-CYCLE | Hormuz transit calls consensus anchors in the 20 to 25 range Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-06-14 · 48 DAYS AGO [ 1 wire ] | |||||
| 08:00 UTC | CMSIG2026061407 | NEWS-CYCLE | Bitcoin above $62K on June 14 commands solid majority in pricing Polymarket ladder | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-06-12 · 50 DAYS AGO [ 11 wires ] | |||||
| 14:32 UTC | CMSIG2026061207 | NEWS-CYCLE | Gas prices above $4.60 to $4.80 by year-end holds as market midpoint Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 14:13 UTC | CMSIG2026061208 | NEWS-CYCLE | SBF release from custody by year-end wavers near floor pricing Polymarket 5% | POLY | html · json |
| 11:42 UTC | CMSIG20260612DV00 | CROSS-VENUE | Grok 5 pre-July release splits sharply across venues Polymarket 6% vs Kalshi 14% | POLY · KAL | html · json |
| 11:42 UTC | CMSIG20260612VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders write off a MicroStrategy Bitcoin sale by May 31 0% · $139M 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 11:42 UTC | CMSIG20260612VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Capital stacks behind a US-Iran deal before June 15 14% · $2.5M 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 11:42 UTC | CMSIG20260612VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Heavy flows defend Bass as Los Angeles mayor favorite 79% · $1.2M 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 11:42 UTC | CMSIG20260612VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Bear capital probes a $55K Bitcoin collapse scenario 14% · $226K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 11:42 UTC | CMSIG20260612VS05 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders stack conviction on a $65K Bitcoin dip in June 87% · $246K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 11:42 UTC | CMSIG20260612VS04 | VOLUME-SPIKE | $100K Bitcoin by June sits deep in tail-risk territory 0% · $253K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 11:42 UTC | CMSIG20260612VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Market defends Bass-Pratt as the confirmed LA mayor ballot 79% · $258K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 11:42 UTC | CMSIG20260612VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Iowa GOP field folds, Lahn flows defend a locked nomination 100% · $557K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-06-11 · 51 DAYS AGO [ 2 wires ] | |||||
| 20:48 UTC | CMSIG2026061103 | NEWS-CYCLE | August CPI month-over-month consensus anchors near 0.3 to 0.4 percent Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 04:46 UTC | CMSIG2026061105 | NEWS-CYCLE | Any Hormuz ship transit by June 30 consensus wavers at majority Polymarket 58% | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-06-10 · 52 DAYS AGO [ 4 wires ] | |||||
| 09:06 UTC | CMSIG2026061006 | NEWS-CYCLE | Inflation surge to 4.5-5 percent in 2026 nears majority pricing Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 02:11 UTC | CMSIG2026061008 | NEWS-CYCLE | Collins as Maine GOP Senate nominee fully absorbed into pricing Kalshi 99% | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026061008 | NEWS-CYCLE | Collins Maine win combined with Paxton Texas win wavers below even odds Kalshi 39% | KAL | html · json |
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026061001 | NEWS-CYCLE | US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31 wavers at coin-flip pricing Polymarket 45% | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-06-08 · 54 DAYS AGO [ 1 wire ] | |||||
| 00:00 UTC | CMSIG2026060806 | NEWS-CYCLE | Putin-Zelenskyy June 30 meeting nears zero pricing Polymarket 1% | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-06-06 · 56 DAYS AGO [ 1 wire ] | |||||
| 00:02 UTC | CMSIG2026060608 | NEWS-CYCLE | California governor primary advance nears full pricing Kalshi 83% | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-06-05 · 57 DAYS AGO [ 1 wire ] | |||||
| 18:52 UTC | CMSIG2026060503 | NEWS-CYCLE | Peak unemployment below 5 percent holds firm in pricing Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-06-04 · 58 DAYS AGO [ 6 wires ] | |||||
| 13:27 UTC | CMSIG2026060408 | NEWS-CYCLE | Lebanon ceasefire extension announcement wavers at low odds Polymarket 20% | POLY | html · json |
| 11:16 UTC | CMSIG20260604BD22 | BENCHMARK-DRIFT | Fed lower bound at 2.75 percent trails well behind FRED rate 5% · Fed funds target rate, upper bound (FRED) 3.75% | POLY | html · json |
| 11:16 UTC | CMSIG20260604BD28 | BENCHMARK-DRIFT | Rate path to 5.25 percent detaches sharply from FRED baseline 3% · Fed funds target rate, upper bound (FRED) 3.75% | POLY | html · json |
| 11:16 UTC | CMSIG20260604BD10 | BENCHMARK-DRIFT | Fed funds at 4.5 percent end-2026 lags far below FRED rate 3% · Fed funds target rate, upper bound (FRED) 3.75% | POLY | html · json |
| 07:42 UTC | CMSIG2026060407 | NEWS-CYCLE | Bitcoin above $68K on June 6 priced a long shot Polymarket 31% | POLY | html · json |
| 01:30 UTC | CMSIG2026060405 | NEWS-CYCLE | Bitcoin Jun 5 pricing fractures below $67K-$67.5K range Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 2026-06-03 · 59 DAYS AGO [ 11 wires ] | |||||
| 19:00 UTC | CMSIG2026060305 | NEWS-CYCLE | Iran-Oman Hormuz deal by June 15 priced near-impossible Polymarket 6% | POLY | html · json |
| 12:15 UTC | CMSIG2026060306 | NEWS-CYCLE | May ADP payrolls above 100K priced near a coin flip Kalshi ladder | KAL | html · json |
| 01:49 UTC | CMSIG20260603DV01 | CROSS-VENUE | Anthropic IPO before 2027 pricing splits across venues Polymarket 70% vs Kalshi 76% | POLY · KAL | html · json |
| 01:46 UTC | CMSIG20260603VS06 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders discount an Israel-Iran peace deal by June 30 19% · $203K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 01:46 UTC | CMSIG20260603VS03 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Heavy flows defend Hormuz normal by June 15 as a long shot 14% · $222K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 01:46 UTC | CMSIG20260603VS02 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders target US-Iran peace by June 7 as a long shot 29% · $642K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 01:46 UTC | CMSIG20260603VS00 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Bitcoin at $150K by June 30 sits deep in tail-risk territory 1% · $5.8M 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 01:46 UTC | CMSIG20260603VS08 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Traders write off Russia capturing all Donetsk by Dec 31 5% · $43K 24h | POLY | html · json |
| 01:46 UTC | CMSIG20260603VS01 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Paxton Texas runoff margin above 20 percent near-certain on big flows 99% · $668K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 01:46 UTC | CMSIG20260603VS07 | VOLUME-SPIKE | Nasdaq-100 above 30K before Dec 31 priced near-certain 99% · $63K 24h | KAL | html · json |
| 00:50 UTC | CMSIG2026060306 | NEWS-CYCLE | Consensus tilts toward Trump unfreezing Iranian assets by June 30 Polymarket 68% | POLY | html · json |
| 2026-06-02 · 60 DAYS AGO [ 1 wire ] | |||||
| 15:52 UTC | CMSIG2026060204 | NEWS-CYCLE | May payrolls above 80K sits near a coin flip in pricing Kalshi 45% | KAL | html · json |
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programmatic access · one payload, every surface
One canonical wire record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, the JSON feed, MCP tools, RSS, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | this page — embedded JSON-LD @type: DataCatalog | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/ |
| JSON | full wire list, newest first | /signals.json |
| JSON | any single wire record | /signals/<slug>.json |
| JSON | every wire for a given event | /signals/for-event/<event_id>.json |
| MCP | agent tool calls (read-only) | list_signals · get_signal |
| RSS | auto-discovered feed for indexers (Perplexity etc.) | /signals/rss.xml |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |