October payrolls consensus sits near 60K to 70K

Name: October payrolls consensus sits near 60K to 70K
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-11-05T09:38:43.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026110503 | category: pre-event-pricing | target: CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76 | published: 2026-11-05

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi ladder puts 58% above 60K and 48% above 70K, pinning the market's central estimate in the 60K-70K range for October payrolls.
The economist consensus of roughly 59K is consistent with the ladder's modal range, leaving the market neither materially optimistic nor pessimistic relative to the street.
The 89% above zero confirms near-zero risk of an outright job loss print, but the 29% above 100K shows meaningful upside tail risk remains.
Resolves via the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report; hurricane or strike-related distortions to October data are a known settlement edge case.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: Treasury yields were little changed Thursday as traders positioned ahead of Friday's October jobs report, with economists forecasting roughly 59,000 jobs added.exa_search → Sean Conlon, Chloe Taylor · as_of 2026-11-05T16:02:36+00:00
publisher: Sean Conlon, Chloe Taylor
published_at: 2026-11-05T09:38:43.000Z
source_url: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/05/treasury-yields-bonds-interest-rates.html

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi ladder provided; distribution spans a wide range, reflecting genuine uncertainty ahead of the release.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxpayrolls-26oct/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXPAYROLLS-26OCT-T70000

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-payrolls-implied-60k-70k-kalshi-ladder-58-48-2026-11-05/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-payrolls-implied-60k-70k-kalshi-ladder-58-48-2026-11-05.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("oct-payrolls-implied-60k-70k-kalshi-ladder-58-48-2026-11-05")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110503",
  "published_at": "2026-11-05T09:38:43.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "PRE_EVENT_PRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76",
  "target_event_slug": "kxpayrolls-26oct",
  "event_question": "October 2026 nonfarm payrolls",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder puts 58% above 60K and 48% above 70K, pinning the market's central estimate in the 60K-70K range for October payrolls.",
    "The economist consensus of roughly 59K is consistent with the ladder's modal range, leaving the market neither materially optimistic nor pessimistic relative to the street.",
    "The 89% above zero confirms near-zero risk of an outright job loss print, but the 29% above 100K shows meaningful upside tail risk remains.",
    "Resolves via the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report; hurricane or strike-related distortions to October data are a known settlement edge case."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Sean Conlon, Chloe Taylor",
          "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/05/treasury-yields-bonds-interest-rates.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-05T16:02:36+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Treasury yields were little changed Thursday as traders positioned ahead of Friday's October jobs report, with economists forecasting roughly 59,000 jobs added.",
      "publisher": "Sean Conlon, Chloe Taylor",
      "published_at": "2026-11-05T09:38:43.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/05/treasury-yields-bonds-interest-rates.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder provided; distribution spans a wide range, reflecting genuine uncertainty ahead of the release."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxpayrolls-26oct/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXPAYROLLS-26OCT-T70000",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Sean Conlon, Chloe Taylor: Treasury yields: traders look ahead to jobs data",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/05/treasury-yields-bonds-interest-rates.html",
      "published_at": "2026-11-05T09:38:43.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-05T16:02:36+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026110503 published 2026-11-05T09:38:43.000Z signature sha256-df5507257fd… ← underlying event all signals →