Nonfarm payrolls, October 2026 [ resolves 2026-11 – 2027-02 ]
Will above 90000 jobs be added in October 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 13 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| > 30000 | 2026-11-06 | 100.0% | — | $911 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 50000 | 2026-11-06 | 100.0% | — | $450 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 60000 | 2026-11-06 | 100.0% | — | $303 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 70000 | 2026-11-06 | 100.0% | — | $80 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 80000 | 2026-11-06 | 100.0% | — | $83 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| -25000 | 2027-02-05 | 86.0% | — | $1.2K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 0 | 2027-02-05 | 78.0% | — | $1.9K | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…-T0 | ||
| > 10000 | 2027-02-05 | 74.0% | — | $202 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 20000 | 2027-02-05 | 72.0% | — | $66 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 40000 | 2027-02-05 | 65.0% | — | $485 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 90000 | 2027-02-05 | 40.0% | — | $116 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 100000 | 2027-02-05 | 24.0% | — | $5 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 | ||
| > 125000 | 2027-02-05 | 22.0% | — | $232 | A | KXPAYROLLS-2…000 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | BLS | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above -25000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of October 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market closes at 8:29 AM ET on the expected date of the data release.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "BLS" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will above 30000 jobs be added in October 2026? | kalshi | 2026-11-06 | 100% |
| YES | Will above 50000 jobs be added in October 2026? | kalshi | 2026-11-06 | 100% |
| YES | Will above 60000 jobs be added in October 2026? | kalshi | 2026-11-06 | 100% |
| YES | Will above 70000 jobs be added in October 2026? | kalshi | 2026-11-06 | 100% |
| YES | Will above 80000 jobs be added in October 2026? | kalshi | 2026-11-06 | 100% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (5 resolved markets). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- October payrolls seen near 70K-80K, odds long on strong rebound Kalshi ladder
- Ladder prices 57% above 70K and only 39% above 80K, implying a central estimate near 70K-80K, well below a robust rebound.
- Reuters consensus calls for a pickup in hiring after soft September; market distribution is consistent but skews toward modest, not strong, recovery.
- Volume on the ladder surged 163.9x day over day, signaling heavy fresh positioning ahead of Friday's data release.
- Companion unemployment ladder (CM-EVT-2X91TW50H2) pins October U-3 at 4.1-4.2%, with 94% above 4.0%, adding context that any payroll rebound is not expected to tighten labor supply materially.
- October payrolls consensus sits near 60K to 70K Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder puts 58% above 60K and 48% above 70K, pinning the market's central estimate in the 60K-70K range for October payrolls.
- The economist consensus of roughly 59K is consistent with the ladder's modal range, leaving the market neither materially optimistic nor pessimistic relative to the street.
- The 89% above zero confirms near-zero risk of an outright job loss print, but the 29% above 100K shows meaningful upside tail risk remains.
- Resolves via the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report; hurricane or strike-related distortions to October data are a known settlement edge case.
- ADP beat nudges payroll odds toward upper Kalshi range Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder modal range for October payrolls sits at 60K-70K; the ADP beat of 86K lands above that central case.
- ADP print is consistent with the market's positive-growth bias, 91% of Kalshi ladder probability sits above zero, but the beat tests the upper tail.
- Only 33% probability priced above 100K; a strong NFP on Friday would be needed to push the distribution meaningfully rightward.
- Resolves via BLS Employment Situation release; ADP and BLS figures have diverged in recent months, limiting the signal value of the ADP beat alone.
- October payrolls seen near 60K to 70K range Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder implies October payrolls in the 60,000-70,000 range; 58% chance above 60K, dropping to 46% above 70K.
- Analyst consensus calls for modest gains and a lower unemployment rate; Kalshi distribution is broadly consistent with subdued but positive growth.
- Wednesday ADP beat of 86K vs. 69K expected sits above the Kalshi modal range, adding mild upside risk to Friday's official print.
- Resolves via the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report; September's 29K print (from Story 6) anchors the low-end reference for the distribution.
- October payrolls seen near 60K-70K, job growth stays odds-on Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder puts the implied October payrolls range at 60K-70K: 92% above zero, 57% above 50K, only 31% above 100K.
- Trading volume on this contract surged 22,979% day-over-day, signaling sharp fresh attention ahead of Friday's release.
- The sharp drop in probability between 50K (57%) and 70K (47%) marks where the distribution thins, market sees modest but positive job growth as the central case.
- The Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report settles this contract; hurricane or survey-week distortions could move the print outside the consensus band.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxpayrolls-26oct/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxpayrolls-26oct |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxpayrolls-26oct") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76",
"slug": "kxpayrolls-26oct",
"question": "Nonfarm payrolls, October 2026",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"jobs-report",
"us-employment",
"october-2026",
"labor-market",
"economic-data"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 13,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 6066,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "BLS",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "BLS",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}