Fed upper bound ≥5.25% before 2027: 3%; rate at 3.75%

Name: Fed upper bound ≥5.25% before 2027: 3%; rate at 3.75%
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-06-03T01:45:00+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

record: CMSIG20260603BD27 | category: vs-benchmark-drift | target: CM-EVT-RLQQ3VJDS6 | published: 2026-06-03

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices only 3% chance the upper bound reaches 5.25% or higher before 2027.
Fed funds upper bound (FRED) currently at 3.75%.
Market implies a 150bps+ net hike cycle restarting before year-end is nearly impossible.
Resolves on FRED Fed funds upper bound reading before January 2027.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] benchmark_divergence

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.78 / 1.00
prompt_template: benchmark_drift_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x728246cda497e10289a7145245675e2baece6561ba784760b0914108e6e42c04

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset` + `ClaimReview`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-fed-s-upper-bound-reach-5-25-or-vs-bench/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-fed-s-upper-bound-reach-5-25-or-vs-bench.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("will-the-fed-s-upper-bound-reach-5-25-or-vs-bench")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260603BD27",
  "published_at": "2026-06-03T01:45:00+00:00",
  "detection": "benchmark_drift",
  "category_tag": "VS_BENCHMARK_DRIFT",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RLQQ3VJDS6",
  "target_event_slug": "what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve's policy rate reach or exceed a specific level before 2027?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only 3% chance the upper bound reaches 5.25% or higher before 2027.",
    "Fed funds upper bound (FRED) currently at 3.75%.",
    "Market implies a 150bps+ net hike cycle restarting before year-end is nearly impossible.",
    "Resolves on FRED Fed funds upper bound reading before January 2027."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "benchmark_divergence",
      "provenance": "PM price direct from polymarket API; benchmark Fed funds target rate, upper bound (FRED) = 3.75%",
      "field_provenance": {
        "pm_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "benchmark_value": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "Fed funds target rate, upper bound (FRED)",
          "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARU",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-03T01:45:00+00:00"
        }
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.78,
    "prompt_template": "benchmark_drift_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Fed funds target rate, upper bound (FRED): 3.75%",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARU",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-03T01:45:00+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "benchmark_api",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260603BD27 published 2026-06-03T01:45:00+00:00 signature sha256-c12e03f7cc8… ← underlying event all signals →