{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260801VS03",
  "record_slug": "will-the-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-vol-27348",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-01T09:55:41+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "H200 compute price staying above $5.49 by Dec 31 locks near certainty",
  "telemetry": "99% · $27K 24h",
  "headline": "H200 above $5.49/hr by Dec 31: 99% on $27K spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-08-01",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MYTG9CGV52",
  "target_event_slug": "kxh200max-26dec31",
  "event_question": "The H200 compute per hour price by Dec 31",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXH200MAX-26DEC31-5.490",
    "question_raw": "Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $5.49 by Dec 31?",
    "current_price": 0.99,
    "volume_24h_usd": 27348.12,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 32842.99,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-08T04:59:59Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a 99% chance the H200 hourly compute rate stays above $5.49 through December 31.",
    "24h volume of $27K is 83% of all-time flow, nearly the entire contract history printed today.",
    "Surge implies a repricing event in GPU cloud markets, possibly a new rate card or capacity announcement, that validated elevated pricing.",
    "Resolves December 31, 2026; at 99% this is functionally a settled view."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 27348.12
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: The H200 compute per hour price by Dec 31",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxh200max-26dec31",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-01T09:55:41+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-vol-27348/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-h200-compute-per-hour-price-be-vol-27348.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}