Fed funds upper bound holds near 3.5 percent post-meeting

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026073002",
  "published_at": "2026-07-30T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-5P6C5JFKT9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-27jan",
  "event_question": "Post-July-meeting Fed funds upper bound",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder pins the post-meeting Fed funds upper bound in the 3.5-3.75% range, with 83% above 3.0% but only 32% above 3.75%.",
    "Warsh's anti-inflation stance and the 9-3 hold are fully consistent with the ladder's sharp probability cliff above 3.75%.",
    "The 35% reading at the 4.0% strike reflects three dissenting votes but markets clearly assign minority odds to an imminent hike.",
    "Cross-referencing the Kalshi contract on a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year at 9% confirms the market sees a narrow path in both directions."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "No Author",
          "source_url": "https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2026/07/30/markets/warsh-inflation-fed-rates/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-30T10:20:48+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh vowed not to waver on inflation as the Fed held rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% with three dissents favoring a hike.",
      "publisher": "No Author",
      "published_at": "2026-07-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2026/07/30/markets/warsh-inflation-fed-rates/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolves via Federal Reserve official policy statements; the 3.5%-3.75% hold band is the current market consensus with a shallow hike tail."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxfed-27jan/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXFED-27JAN-T3.75",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "No Author: Warsh vows not to ‘waver’ on inflation as divided Fed leaves rates unc",
      "url": "https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2026/07/30/markets/warsh-inflation-fed-rates/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-30T10:20:48+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}