The upper bound of the federal funds rate following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting [ resolves 2027-02-03 (195D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 18 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 0% | 2027-02-03 | 98.0% | $4 | $696 | A | KXFED-27JAN-T0.00 | ||
| ≥ 0.25% | 2027-02-03 | 95.0% | — | $897 | A | KXFED-27JAN-T0.25 | ||
| ≥ 0.5% | 2027-02-03 | 94.0% | — | $1.3K | A | KXFED-27JAN-T0.50 | ||
| ≥ 0.75% | 2027-02-03 | 95.0% | — | $1.8K | A | KXFED-27JAN-T0.75 | ||
| ≥ 1% | 2027-02-03 | 95.0% | $10 | $1.2K | A | KXFED-27JAN-T1.00 | ||
| ≥ 1.25% | 2027-02-03 | 95.0% | — | $2.0K | A | KXFED-27JAN-T1.25 | ||
| ≥ 1.5% | 2027-02-03 | 94.0% | $2 | $2.0K | A | KXFED-27JAN-T1.50 | ||
| ≥ 1.75% | 2027-02-03 | 94.0% | $0 | $784 | A | KXFED-27JAN-T1.75 | ||
| ≥ 2% | 2027-02-03 | 94.0% | $4 | $1.2K | A | KXFED-27JAN-T2.00 | ||
| ≥ 2.25% | 2027-02-03 | 91.0% | — | $1.0K | A | KXFED-27JAN-T2.25 | ||
| ≥ 2.5% | 2027-02-03 | 91.0% | — | $1.4K | A | KXFED-27JAN-T2.50 | ||
| ≥ 2.75% | 2027-02-03 | 87.0% | $5 | $736 | A | KXFED-27JAN-T2.75 | ||
| ≥ 3% | 2027-02-03 | 84.0% | — | $4.2K | A | KXFED-27JAN-T3.00 | ||
| ≥ 3.25% | 2027-02-03 | 82.0% | — | $10K | A | KXFED-27JAN-T3.25 | ||
| ≥ 3.5% | 2027-02-03 | 83.0% | — | $5.2K | A | KXFED-27JAN-T3.50 | ||
| ≥ 3.75% | 2027-02-03 | 32.0% | — | $616 | A | KXFED-27JAN-T3.75 | ||
| ≥ 4% | 2027-02-03 | 28.0% | $2 | $972 | A | KXFED-27JAN-T4.00 | ||
| ≥ 4.25% | 2027-02-03 | 10.0% | — | $100 | A | KXFED-27JAN-T4.25 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve Board of Governors | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 0.00% following the Federal Reserve's Jan 27, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
This market will expire the first 2:05 PM ET following the release of a Federal Reserve statement for their Jan 27, 2027 meeting or one week following the last day of that meeting.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve Board of Governors" ↗ sources (2) · single authority
- Federal Reserve Board of Governors source of record venue-listed
- Federal Reserve's official website from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- Fed funds upper bound holds near 3.5 percent post-meeting Kalshi ladder
- Kalshi ladder pins the post-meeting Fed funds upper bound in the 3.5-3.75% range, with 83% above 3.0% but only 32% above 3.75%.
- Warsh's anti-inflation stance and the 9-3 hold are fully consistent with the ladder's sharp probability cliff above 3.75%.
- The 35% reading at the 4.0% strike reflects three dissenting votes but markets clearly assign minority odds to an imminent hike.
- Cross-referencing the Kalshi contract on a rate cut greater than 25 basis points this year at 9% confirms the market sees a narrow path in both directions.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfed-27jan/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxfed-27jan |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxfed-27jan") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-5P6C5JFKT9",
"slug": "kxfed-27jan",
"question": "The upper bound of the federal funds rate following the Fed's Jan 27, 2027 meeting",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fed-funds-rate",
"monetary-policy",
"federal-reserve",
"interest-rates",
"2027"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 18,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 36225,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 96,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve's official website",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}