{
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  "record_slug": "will-the-margin-of-victory-for-ken-paxto-vol-668229",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-03T01:46:55+00:00",
  "headline": "Paxton TX Senate runoff margin: 99% on $668K",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-WDW9695BR8",
  "target_event_slug": "kxtxrsenrunoffmov-26may26",
  "event_question": "Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 20% and 100%?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXTXRSENRUNOFFMOV-26MAY26-KPAX-P60",
    "question_raw": "Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff be between 20% and 100%?",
    "current_price": 0.994,
    "volume_24h_usd": 668229.94,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 1148801.09,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2027-05-26T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi consensus at 99% implies Paxton runoff victory is near-certain.",
    "$668K in 24h represents 58% of all-time volume, dominant single-session flow.",
    "Runoff outcome likely imminent or just concluded, prompting settlement-driven volume.",
    "Resolution tied to certified runoff result; residual 1% reflects tail/administrative risk."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 668229.94
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the margin of victory for Ken Paxton in the 2026 T",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxtxrsenrunoffmov-26may26",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-03T01:46:55+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
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    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-margin-of-victory-for-ken-paxto-vol-668229.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
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