{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261024DV00",
  "record_slug": "us-economy-soft-landing-k17-p9",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-24T12:27:18+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Economy-in-recession call trades far apart across venues",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 9% vs Kalshi 17%",
  "headline": "U.S. economy in recession by end-2026: Kalshi 17% vs Polymarket 9%",
  "category_tag": "CROSS_VENUE_DIVERGENCE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "cross_venue_divergence",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-08",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRG5DFDMZ8",
  "target_event_slug": "kxeconpath-26",
  "event_question": "State of the economy at the end of 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x50e3ee8f93a464d04ea2cea6efff45c902f43642aedbf43f7afdc899e10f71d8",
    "question_raw": "Will the US economy be in a soft landing at the end of 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.09,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 52112.032628,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [
    {
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXECONPATH-26-SOFT",
      "question_raw": "State of the economy at the end of 2026?",
      "current_price": 0.174
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices recession by end-2026 at 17%, Polymarket at 9%, an 8pp gap.",
    "Kalshi sits higher on thin volume; Polymarket holds the lower read with roughly 8x more cumulative activity.",
    "Polymarket's deeper pool likely reflects broader crowd input; Kalshi's premium may stem from a smaller, more pessimistic participant base or differing resolution criteria.",
    "Resolution hinges on an official or widely accepted recession determination before Jan 1, 2027, definitional ambiguity may itself explain part of the spread."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "cross_venue_spread",
      "provenance": "CM cross-venue link (question_id CMX-534611296D); prices direct from venue APIs",
      "field_provenance": {
        "kalshi_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "poly_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_clob_api"
        },
        "divergence_pp": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "kalshi_price",
            "poly_price"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 1096.64,
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 3.48
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket cross-venue record: State of the economy at the end of 2026?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/compare/us-economy-soft-landing-y-2026",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-24T12:27:18+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api, polymarket_clob_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-economy-soft-landing-k17-p9/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-economy-soft-landing-k17-p9.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}