{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026073102",
  "record_slug": "june-2026-cpi-above-3-kalshi-ladder-near-50-50-2026-07-31",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-31T04:33:22.486Z",
  "semantic_title": "US CPI above 3 percent for year ending June holds near 50%",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "June 2026 CPI above 3%: Kalshi ladder near 50-50",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-08-01",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-XP5XZNK7W3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpiyoy-26jul",
  "event_question": "CPI inflation rate year ending June 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCPIYOY-26JUL-T3.4",
    "question_raw": "Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.4% for the year ending in July 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.28,
    "volume_24h_usd": 4597.01,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-11T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder implies June 2026 CPI in the 3.3-3.4% range: 98% above 3.0%, 59% above 3.3%, but only 28% above 3.4%.",
    "ABC News and AP both describe inflation as 'stubbornly high' amid the Iran war; the ladder's tight 3.3-3.4% implied range is consistent with elevated but not runaway readings.",
    "The sharp drop from 59% to 28% between the 3.3% and 3.4% strikes shows the market sees a hard ceiling just above 3.3%, not the kind of open-ended breakout that war-shock headlines often imply.",
    "Separately, a Kalshi binary on core CPI below 2.2% in 2026 sits at just 24%, reinforcing the ladder's message that inflation is stuck well above target."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "ABC News",
          "source_url": "https://abcnews.com/Business/government-report-show-us-economy-performed-amid-iran/story?id=135152547",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-31T10:34:33+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "US Q2 GDP grew at a sluggish 1.5% annualized rate as the Iran war fueled an inflation surge that slowed the economy more than expected.",
      "publisher": "ABC News",
      "published_at": "2026-07-31T04:33:22.486Z",
      "source_url": "https://abcnews.com/Business/government-report-show-us-economy-performed-amid-iran/story?id=135152547"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI release; the distribution is narrowly concentrated in the 3.3-3.4% band, reflecting the market's read of persistent but bounded inflation."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ABC News: US economy slowed more than expected as the Iran war took hold",
      "url": "https://abcnews.com/Business/government-report-show-us-economy-performed-amid-iran/story?id=135152547",
      "published_at": "2026-07-31T04:33:22.486Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-31T10:34:33+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-2026-cpi-above-3-kalshi-ladder-near-50-50-2026-07-31/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-2026-cpi-above-3-kalshi-ladder-near-50-50-2026-07-31.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}