{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260730VS07",
  "record_slug": "will-russia-capture-havrylivka-by-septem-vol-47775",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-30T10:21:41+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Russia capturing Havrylivka by Sep 30 stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "6% · $48K 24h",
  "headline": "Russia takes Havrylivka Sep 30: 6% odds",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-08-01",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RYR4XV6NT4",
  "target_event_slug": "will-russia-capture-havrylivka-by-february-28",
  "event_question": "Will Russia capture Havrylivka in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x99a94710860ba0285f53275e563e13c36865d9d717c7b4b5e5e520dacad4ae0d",
    "question_raw": "Will Russia capture Havrylivka by September 30, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.057,
    "volume_24h_usd": 47775.98,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 81696.020322,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "6% pricing keeps a Russian capture of Havrylivka firmly in tail-risk territory through September 30.",
    "$47.8K in 24h volume is 58% of all-time, the contract's largest relative session, pointing to a fresh battlefield development.",
    "A spike of this scale into a low-priced geopolitical contract often precedes or responds to on-the-ground tactical news.",
    "Resolves on verified Russian control of Havrylivka by September 30, 2026."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 47775.98
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will Russia capture Havrylivka in 2026? (multi-deadline",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-russia-capture-havrylivka-by-february-28",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-30T10:21:41+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-russia-capture-havrylivka-by-septem-vol-47775/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-russia-capture-havrylivka-by-septem-vol-47775.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}