{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110601",
  "record_slug": "oct-nonfarm-payrolls-ladder-pins-70k-80k-57-above-70k-2026-11-06",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-06T05:04:41.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "October payrolls seen near 70K-80K, odds long on strong rebound",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Oct nonfarm payrolls: ladder pins 70K-80K, 57% above 70K",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-11-08",
    "outcome": "YES",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 1,
    "resolved_at": "2026-11-06"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76",
  "target_event_slug": "kxpayrolls-26oct",
  "event_question": "October 2026 nonfarm payrolls",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26OCT-T80000",
    "question_raw": "Will above 80000 jobs be added in October 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.39,
    "volume_24h_usd": 379.07,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "BLS",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-05T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Ladder prices 57% above 70K and only 39% above 80K, implying a central estimate near 70K-80K, well below a robust rebound.",
    "Reuters consensus calls for a pickup in hiring after soft September; market distribution is consistent but skews toward modest, not strong, recovery.",
    "Volume on the ladder surged 163.9x day over day, signaling heavy fresh positioning ahead of Friday's data release.",
    "Companion unemployment ladder (CM-EVT-2X91TW50H2) pins October U-3 at 4.1-4.2%, with 94% above 4.0%, adding context that any payroll rebound is not expected to tighten labor supply materially."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "investing.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/us-job-growth-expected-to-pick-up-in-october-with-moderation-in-wage-gains-5006475",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-06T07:48:14+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Reuters reports October payrolls expected to rebound from a soft September, with wage growth set to moderate.",
      "publisher": "investing.com",
      "published_at": "2026-11-06T05:04:41.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/us-job-growth-expected-to-pick-up-in-october-with-moderation-in-wage-gains-5006475"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder carries validated volume data showing 163.9x day-over-day surge; binary payroll and unemployment ladders are priced consistently with a soft but positive October print."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "investing.com: US job growth expected to pick up in October, with moderation in wage",
      "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/us-job-growth-expected-to-pick-up-in-october-with-moderation-in-wage-gains-5006475",
      "published_at": "2026-11-06T05:04:41.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-06T07:48:14+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-nonfarm-payrolls-ladder-pins-70k-80k-57-above-70k-2026-11-06/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-nonfarm-payrolls-ladder-pins-70k-80k-57-above-70k-2026-11-06.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}