{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060204",
  "record_slug": "may-2026-nonfarm-payrolls-implied-70k-80k-kalshi-2026-06-02",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-02T15:52:11.000Z",
  "headline": "May 2026 nonfarm payrolls implied 70k-80k: Kalshi",
  "category_tag": "PRE_EVENT_PRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-QH49Q7F1N3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxpayrolls-26may",
  "event_question": "May 2026 nonfarm payroll additions",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26MAY-T80000",
    "question_raw": "Will above 80000 jobs be added in May 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.45,
    "volume_24h_usd": 118.04,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau Of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2026-06-05T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder implies May 2026 payrolls in the 70k-80k range: 77% above 30k, 53% above 70k, only 45% above 80k.",
    "April's 7.6 million job openings print is consistent with the positive-but-modest payroll range the ladder prices; no market shock implied.",
    "Companion ladder CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76 for October 2026 shows similar 70k-80k implied range, suggesting the market sees no near-term deterioration.",
    "Resolves via BLS Employment Situation report for May 2026; the ladder settles at the reported seasonally adjusted nonfarm payroll change."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "pbs.org",
          "source_url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/u-s-job-openings-climbed-to-7-6-million-in-april-despite-economic-fallout-from-iran-war",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-03T01:50:17+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "US job openings climbed to 7.6 million in April despite economic fallout from the Iran war, signaling labor market resilience.",
      "publisher": "pbs.org",
      "published_at": "2026-06-02T15:52:11.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/u-s-job-openings-climbed-to-7-6-million-in-april-despite-economic-fallout-from-iran-war"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi May payroll ladder prices a positive but below-trend jobs outcome, broadly confirming the 'weirdly decent' labor market narrative without pricing a breakout."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "pbs.org: U.S. job openings climbed to 7.6 million in April despite economic fal",
      "url": "https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/u-s-job-openings-climbed-to-7-6-million-in-april-despite-economic-fallout-from-iran-war",
      "published_at": "2026-06-02T15:52:11.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-03T01:50:17+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/may-2026-nonfarm-payrolls-implied-70k-80k-kalshi-2026-06-02/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/may-2026-nonfarm-payrolls-implied-70k-80k-kalshi-2026-06-02.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}