{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072908",
  "record_slug": "btc-above-67-500-by-jul-31-kalshi-ladder-15-2026-07-29",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-29T07:16:47.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Bitcoin above $67,500 by July 31 stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "BTC above $67,500 by Jul 31: Kalshi ladder 15%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "closed",
    "as_of": "2026-08-01",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-R55TT711T7",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcmaxmon-btc-26jul31",
  "event_question": "BTC trimmed mean price by July 31",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXBTCMAXMON-BTC-26JUL31-6750000",
    "question_raw": "Will BTC trimmed mean be above $67500.00 by 11:59 PM ET on Jul 31, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.15,
    "volume_24h_usd": 11338.22,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "CF Benchmarks",
    "resolves_at": "2026-08-08T03:59:59Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices only 15% on BTC trimmed mean above $67,500 by July 31, with probabilities collapsing to 2% at $70,000 and above.",
    "Bitcoin trading below $65,000 with ETF outflows extending is consistent with the ladder's heavily bearish near-term distribution.",
    "A longer-horizon Polymarket ladder prices only 14% on BTC above $100,000 by December 31, 2026, confirming broad-market skepticism on recovery.",
    "Resolves end of day July 31; the trimmed mean methodology reduces spike distortion, making the 15% at $67,500 a clean read on current spot-level conviction."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "cointelegraph.com",
          "source_url": "https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-etf-extend-outflow-streak-btc-slips-below-65k",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-29T10:35:12+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Bitcoin ETFs extended outflows as BTC fell below $65,000, with analysts warning of bull-trap risk and a possible slide to $55,000.",
      "publisher": "cointelegraph.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-29T07:16:47.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-etf-extend-outflow-streak-btc-slips-below-65k"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi covers the July 31 BTC trimmed mean ladder; Polymarket covers the year-end $100K threshold at 14%, with both venues aligned bearishly."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "cointelegraph.com: Bitcoin ETFs Extend Outflows as BTC Falls Below $65K",
      "url": "https://cointelegraph.com/markets/bitcoin-etf-extend-outflow-streak-btc-slips-below-65k",
      "published_at": "2026-07-29T07:16:47.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-29T10:35:12+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/btc-above-67-500-by-jul-31-kalshi-ladder-15-2026-07-29/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/btc-above-67-500-by-jul-31-kalshi-ladder-15-2026-07-29.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}