{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG20260603VS08",
  "record_slug": "will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblas-vol-42880",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-03T01:46:55+00:00",
  "headline": "Russia captures all Donetsk by Dec 31: 5% on $43K",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-00P074X336",
  "target_event_slug": "will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblast-by",
  "event_question": "Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xec4366aa6a191c8dc392e2b3bc874d5ce9a22637a60f33e72e869ce39c89ef4e",
    "question_raw": "Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.046,
    "volume_24h_usd": 42880.027108,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 48710.641048000005,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket at 5%, market assigns low but non-trivial probability of full Donetsk capture this year.",
    "$43K in 24h is 88% of all-time volume; contract newly active with concentrated single-session flow.",
    "Ceasefire or negotiation developments likely prompted contract creation and immediate positioning.",
    "Resolves December 31; full oblast capture requires substantial battlefield acceleration."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 42880.027108
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblast-by",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-03T01:46:55+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblas-vol-42880/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-russia-capture-all-of-donetsk-oblas-vol-42880.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}