{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260912VS00",
  "record_slug": "will-the-federal-reserve-hike-rates-by-2-vol-2349087",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-12T11:56:57+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Traders pile into a 25bps Fed hike at 80%",
  "telemetry": "80% · $2.3M 24h",
  "headline": "Fed Sept hike: 80% on $2.3M one-day surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-16",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-18Z2VTMCX0",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfeddecision-26sep",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in September 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFEDDECISION-26SEP-H25",
    "question_raw": "Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.8,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2349087.68,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 9100058.7,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-16T18:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a 25bps September hike at 80%, market treats it as near-certain.",
    "$2.35M traded in 24h, equal to 26% of all-time contract volume, signals broad conviction.",
    "Heavy flow just before the September FOMC meeting suggests positioning is locking in ahead of the decision.",
    "Contract resolves on the Fed's September 2026 rate announcement."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 2349087.68
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in September 2",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfeddecision-26sep",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-12T11:56:57+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-federal-reserve-hike-rates-by-2-vol-2349087/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-federal-reserve-hike-rates-by-2-vol-2349087.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}