{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260603BD27",
  "record_slug": "will-the-fed-s-upper-bound-reach-5-25-or-vs-bench",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-03T01:45:00+00:00",
  "headline": "Fed upper bound ≥5.25% before 2027: 3%; rate at 3.75%",
  "category_tag": "VS_BENCHMARK_DRIFT",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "benchmark_drift",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-RLQQ3VJDS6",
  "target_event_slug": "what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve's policy rate reach or exceed a specific level before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x728246cda497e10289a7145245675e2baece6561ba784760b0914108e6e42c04",
    "question_raw": "Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 5.25% or higher before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.03,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 141016.509875,
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only 3% chance the upper bound reaches 5.25% or higher before 2027.",
    "Fed funds upper bound (FRED) currently at 3.75%.",
    "Market implies a 150bps+ net hike cycle restarting before year-end is nearly impossible.",
    "Resolves on FRED Fed funds upper bound reading before January 2027."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "benchmark_divergence",
      "provenance": "PM price direct from polymarket API; benchmark Fed funds target rate, upper bound (FRED) = 3.75%",
      "field_provenance": {
        "pm_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "benchmark_value": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "Fed funds target rate, upper bound (FRED)",
          "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARU",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-03T01:45:00+00:00"
        }
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Fed funds target rate, upper bound (FRED): 3.75%",
      "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARU",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-03T01:45:00+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "benchmark_api",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-fed-s-upper-bound-reach-5-25-or-vs-bench/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-fed-s-upper-bound-reach-5-25-or-vs-bench.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}