Fresh Election Day volume backs Democrats in Mississippi Senate

Name: Fresh Election Day volume backs Democrats in Mississippi Senate
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-11-05T07:49:08+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

96% · $3.5M 24h

record: CMSIG20261105VS01 | category: volume-spike | target: CM-EVT-6R8L57X0Y4 | published: 2026-11-05

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi prices a Democratic Mississippi Senate win at 96%, leaving only a 4% tail for a Republican hold.
27% of all-time volume, $3.5M, cleared in 24 hours, the single heaviest trading day on this contract.
Election Day turnout data and early returns appear to be reinforcing the dominant pricing consensus.
Resolves on certified Mississippi Senate outcome; market leaves a narrow but non-zero upset tail.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] volume_anomaly

liquidity kalshi_vol_24h: $3.51M

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.81 / 1.00
prompt_template: volume_spike_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/senatems-26/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEMS-26-D

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-democratics-win-the-senate-race-in-vol-3512612/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-democratics-win-the-senate-race-in-vol-3512612.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("will-democratics-win-the-senate-race-in-vol-3512612")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261105VS01",
  "published_at": "2026-11-05T07:49:08+00:00",
  "detection": "volume_spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6R8L57X0Y4",
  "target_event_slug": "senatems-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Mississippi Senate race be decided by January 4, 2027?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a Democratic Mississippi Senate win at 96%, leaving only a 4% tail for a Republican hold.",
    "27% of all-time volume, $3.5M, cleared in 24 hours, the single heaviest trading day on this contract.",
    "Election Day turnout data and early returns appear to be reinforcing the dominant pricing consensus.",
    "Resolves on certified Mississippi Senate outcome; market leaves a narrow but non-zero upset tail."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 3512612.25
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.81,
    "prompt_template": "volume_spike_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/senatems-26/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/SENATEMS-26-D",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the Mississippi Senate race be decided by January ",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/senatems-26",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-05T07:49:08+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20261105VS01 published 2026-11-05T07:49:08+00:00 signature sha256-53de7e71457… ← underlying event all signals →