Will the Mississippi Senate race be decided by January 4, 2027? [ resolves 2027-01-04 (153D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | United States Congress | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Mississippi for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "United States Congress" sources (1) · single authority
United States Congress committed source
recent wire items
- Mississippi Senate stays a Republican lock at 97% 3% · $171K 24h
- Market prices Republican Mississippi Senate win at 97%, effectively a certain hold.
- $171K in 24h is 35% of all-time; notable flow into a near-foregone conclusion.
- Election Day today triggers resolution activity; volume likely reflects contract closeout.
- Kalshi contract resolves on certified Mississippi Senate winner.
- Mississippi GOP Senate odds sit at 4% through fresh volume 4% · $220K 24h
- Kalshi prices a Republican Mississippi Senate win at 4%, consistent with the 96% Democratic pricing on the companion contract.
- 42% of all-time volume, $220K, cleared in one session, a notable Election Day commitment to the 'no' side.
- Volume at this price level suggests traders are either closing long Democratic positions or making final directional bets.
- Resolves on certified Mississippi Senate result; a 4% tail is not zero in a close-count environment.
- Fresh Election Day volume backs Democrats in Mississippi Senate 96% · $3.5M 24h
- Kalshi prices a Democratic Mississippi Senate win at 96%, leaving only a 4% tail for a Republican hold.
- 27% of all-time volume, $3.5M, cleared in 24 hours, the single heaviest trading day on this contract.
- Election Day turnout data and early returns appear to be reinforcing the dominant pricing consensus.
- Resolves on certified Mississippi Senate outcome; market leaves a narrow but non-zero upset tail.
- Republican Mississippi Senate odds slip to 8% 8% · $670K 24h
- Kalshi prices a Republican Mississippi Senate win at just 8%, the complementary contract to Spike 0.
- $670K is 90% of all-time volume on this contract, the highest all-time share in this batch.
- 90% all-time volume in one session at 8% confirms traders are selling Republican Mississippi exposure aggressively.
- Resolves as the inverse of the Democratic Mississippi Senate contract.
- Heavy trading backs Democrats to take Mississippi Senate 92% · $9.2M 24h
- Kalshi prices Democratic win at 92%, market treats this as near-certain.
- 24h volume of $9.2M is 88% of all-time handle, an extraordinary single-day concentration.
- Election-eve flow with votes tallying today; capital is rushing to lock in final positions.
- Resolves on certified Mississippi Senate result.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/senatems-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/senatems-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("senatems-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-6R8L57X0Y4",
"slug": "senatems-26",
"question": "Will the Mississippi Senate race be decided by January 4, 2027?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-senate-election",
"mississippi",
"2026-election",
"electoral-politics",
"republican-democrat"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 23050,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "United States Congress",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "United States Congress",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "United States Congress",
"url": "https://www.congress.gov/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}