{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072902",
  "record_slug": "fed-july-hold-with-dissent-kalshi-60-2026-07-29",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-29T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed July dissent odds hold near 50% on hawk pressure",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 60%",
  "headline": "Fed July hold with dissent: Kalshi 60%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-08-01",
    "outcome": "YES",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 1,
    "resolved_at": "2026-07-29"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-P6QJP9BW02",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfedcombo-26jul",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve in July 2026 cut rates and have at least one dissent?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFEDCOMBO-26JUL-0-T0",
    "question_raw": "Will Federal Funds Rate Decision be No change AND Dissents be >0 for Jul 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.6,
    "volume_24h_usd": 24412.57,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-29T17:55:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a 60% probability the Fed holds rates in July 2026 with at least one hawkish dissent.",
    "News reporting that patience is running thin among Fed officials is broadly consistent with the above-even Kalshi dissent odds.",
    "A hold-with-dissent outcome would signal mounting internal pressure without committing to a hike, bridging the gap to the 76% full-year hike probability on Polymarket.",
    "Kalshi resolves this via Bureau of Labor Statistics data; note the resolution source appears atypical for a Fed vote outcome and may reflect a linked inflation trigger."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "today.rtl.lu",
          "source_url": "https://today.rtl.lu/news/world/us-fed-expected-to-hold-rates-steady-as-inflation-hawks-circle-197431541",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-29T10:35:12+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Multiple outlets report the Fed is expected to hold rates in July but that inflation hawks may push some policymakers to dissent in favor of a hike.",
      "publisher": "today.rtl.lu",
      "published_at": "2026-07-29T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://today.rtl.lu/news/world/us-fed-expected-to-hold-rates-steady-as-inflation-hawks-circle-197431541"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 60% is the only priced contract with a live number covering the July hold-plus-dissent scenario."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "today.rtl.lu: 'Patience running thin': US Fed expected to hold rates steady as infla",
      "url": "https://today.rtl.lu/news/world/us-fed-expected-to-hold-rates-steady-as-inflation-hawks-circle-197431541",
      "published_at": "2026-07-29T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-29T10:35:12+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-july-hold-with-dissent-kalshi-60-2026-07-29/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-july-hold-with-dissent-kalshi-60-2026-07-29.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}