Blue tsunami in 2026 stays near fully priced on Kalshi

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110703",
  "published_at": "2026-11-07T12:58:23.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "lagging",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6CY3Y4C610",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbluetsunamicombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will there be a blue tsunami in 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices the 2026 blue tsunami at 99%, essentially a resolved outcome given the Democratic sweep reported across multiple races.",
    "News confirms Democrats took control of Congress and are expanding their House majority, the 99% Kalshi reading is fully consistent with reported results.",
    "The companion Kalshi blue wave contract (Story 14, CM-EVT-QK0HJYVMX2) also sits at 99%, with both contracts corroborating the same electoral outcome.",
    "Resolution is via the Bureau of Labor Statistics per the named source, an unusual resolver for an electoral contract, worth watching for any settlement edge case."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Xiaoqian Lin, Curt Merrill, Shikha Subramaniam, Mostafa Salem, Aaron Blake",
          "source_url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/11/07/politics/live-news/midterm-election-congress",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-07T14:38:54+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Democrats are set to further increase their House majority as Trump signals a Cabinet shake-up including Stephen Miller as chief of staff following a sweeping Republican midterm defeat.",
      "publisher": "Xiaoqian Lin, Curt Merrill, Shikha Subramaniam, Mostafa Salem, Aaron Blake",
      "published_at": "2026-11-07T12:58:23.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/11/07/politics/live-news/midterm-election-congress"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 99% is effectively a settled position consistent with reported Democratic sweep; both blue wave and blue tsunami contracts price the same outcome at the same level."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxbluetsunamicombo-27feb/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBLUETSUNAMICOMBO-27FEB",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Xiaoqian Lin, Curt Merrill, Shikha Subramaniam, Mostafa Salem, Aaron Blake: Midterm elections latest: Trump signals Cabinet shake-up as Democrats",
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/11/07/politics/live-news/midterm-election-congress",
      "published_at": "2026-11-07T12:58:23.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-07T14:38:54+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}