Will there be a blue tsunami in 2026? [ resolves 2027-02-01 (181D) ]
Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND hold 51 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND… | 2027-02-01 | 38.0% | $384 | $111K | A | KXBLUETSUNAM…FEB |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Labor Statistics | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If ALL of the following occur: Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a combination market requiring ALL specified outcomes to occur for the contract to pay out. If ANY single component resolves to No or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves to No. Each component is resolved according to its corresponding Kalshi ruleset: "Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House?" uses SEATSCONGRESS, "Will Democrats hold 51 or more seats in the Senate?" uses SEATSCONGRESS. For economic data releases, resolution uses the first officially released value (not preliminary or revised estimates unless specified). All conditions must be satisfied within the specified time period.
This market will resolve based on the composition of the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate on February 1, 2027. Individuals caucusing with either party will be included with them (e.g. an Independent who caucuses with a party, like Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders who caucuses with the Democrats, would be counted as a Democrat).
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Labor Statistics" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
Bureau of Labor Statistics committed source Bureau of Labor Statistics committed source Federal Reserve Board of Governors venue-listed
recent wire items
- Blue tsunami in 2026 stays near fully priced on Kalshi Kalshi 99%
- Kalshi prices the 2026 blue tsunami at 99%, essentially a resolved outcome given the Democratic sweep reported across multiple races.
- News confirms Democrats took control of Congress and are expanding their House majority, the 99% Kalshi reading is fully consistent with reported results.
- The companion Kalshi blue wave contract (Story 14, CM-EVT-QK0HJYVMX2) also sits at 99%, with both contracts corroborating the same electoral outcome.
- Resolution is via the Bureau of Labor Statistics per the named source, an unusual resolver for an electoral contract, worth watching for any settlement edge case.
- Blue tsunami in 2026 nears full pricing on Kalshi Kalshi 99%
- Kalshi prices the 2026 blue tsunami at 99%, essentially a settled outcome given vote counts in progress.
- News confirms Democrats have already secured a commanding House majority and are leading remaining Senate races, consistent with near-certainty pricing.
- Companion Kalshi contract CM-EVT-KQWMXB6NX7 on a new Alaska senator sits at only 3%, suggesting that specific race outcome is still uncertain despite the broader Democratic wave.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics per the listed source, though the operative resolution mechanism is the certified congressional election results.
- Blue tsunami odds hold near fully priced after midterm results Kalshi 99%
- Kalshi prices the 2026 blue tsunami contract at 99%, reflecting the reported scale of Democratic gains across both chambers.
- News confirms Democrats exceeded 250 House seats, consistent with pricing at the upper bound of certainty.
- The distinction between this contract and the blue wave contract on Kalshi (CM-EVT-QK0HJYVMX2, also 99%) suggests both thresholds are viewed as cleared.
- Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics per the named source; traders should monitor the exact resolution criteria for tsunami versus wave.
- Blue tsunami in 2026 nears full pricing on Kalshi Kalshi 99%
- The Kalshi contract on a blue tsunami in 2026 sits at 99%, essentially fully priced following confirmed Democratic control of both the House and Senate.
- Bitcoin's initial drop to $75,700 on early Democratic sweep returns, followed by a recovery above $80,000, shows crypto markets digested the political outcome rapidly.
- The Kalshi contract on Trump creating a National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026 sits at only 3%, reflecting how the Democratic sweep slashes the probability of pro-crypto executive action in the near term.
- Resolves via the Bureau of Labor Statistics as the named source; the resolution mechanic should be verified, as this appears to be an electoral outcome contract rather than a labor statistic.
- Blue tsunami in 2026 midterms holds near 50 percent odds Kalshi 55%
- The Kalshi prediction market puts 55% odds on a blue tsunami in the 2026 midterms, a slim majority-favored outcome.
- Pollsters pointing to a great Democratic night are broadly consistent with Kalshi's pricing, but the 55% reading shows the market sees it as a coin-flip-plus rather than a certainty.
- A companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-QK0HJYVMX2) on a generic blue wave sits at 84%, suggesting markets distinguish between a wave and the stronger tsunami threshold.
- Resolution is via the Bureau of Labor Statistics as listed on Kalshi, the specific resolution criteria for 'blue tsunami' versus 'blue wave' will determine which contracts settle yes.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbluetsunamicombo-27feb/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbluetsunamicombo-27feb |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxbluetsunamicombo-27feb") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-6CY3Y4C610",
"slug": "kxbluetsunamicombo-27feb",
"question": "Will there be a blue tsunami in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"us-midterm-elections",
"democratic-gains",
"house-seats",
"2026-politics",
"electoral-wave"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 111401,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 100,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": "https://www.bls.gov/cpi/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}