Blue tsunami in 2026 nears full pricing on Kalshi

Name: Blue tsunami in 2026 nears full pricing on Kalshi
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-11-06T12:31:55.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi 99%

record: CMSIG2026110603 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-6CY3Y4C610 | published: 2026-11-06

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi prices the 2026 blue tsunami at 99%, essentially a settled outcome given vote counts in progress.
News confirms Democrats have already secured a commanding House majority and are leading remaining Senate races, consistent with near-certainty pricing.
Companion Kalshi contract CM-EVT-KQWMXB6NX7 on a new Alaska senator sits at only 3%, suggesting that specific race outcome is still uncertain despite the broader Democratic wave.
Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics per the listed source, though the operative resolution mechanism is the certified congressional election results.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: Democrats have won 253 House seats to Republicans' 157 with races still uncalled, and are leading in Alaska and Mississippi Senate contests.exa_search → 0 NBC News NBC News · as_of 2026-11-06T15:37:02+00:00
publisher: 0 NBC News NBC News
published_at: 2026-11-06T12:31:55.000Z
source_url: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/live-blog/trump-congress-midterm-elections-mississippi-alaska-live-updates-rcna607738

[02] pm_response

interp: Kalshi at 99%; market is fully aligned with reported Democratic sweep, with the Alaska and Mississippi tallies representing the last residual uncertainty.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxbluetsunamicombo-27feb/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBLUETSUNAMICOMBO-27FEB

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/blue-tsunami-2026-kalshi-99-2026-11-06/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/blue-tsunami-2026-kalshi-99-2026-11-06.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("blue-tsunami-2026-kalshi-99-2026-11-06")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110603",
  "published_at": "2026-11-06T12:31:55.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "lagging",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6CY3Y4C610",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbluetsunamicombo-27feb",
  "event_question": "Will there be a blue tsunami in 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices the 2026 blue tsunami at 99%, essentially a settled outcome given vote counts in progress.",
    "News confirms Democrats have already secured a commanding House majority and are leading remaining Senate races, consistent with near-certainty pricing.",
    "Companion Kalshi contract CM-EVT-KQWMXB6NX7 on a new Alaska senator sits at only 3%, suggesting that specific race outcome is still uncertain despite the broader Democratic wave.",
    "Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics per the listed source, though the operative resolution mechanism is the certified congressional election results."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "0 NBC News NBC News",
          "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/live-blog/trump-congress-midterm-elections-mississippi-alaska-live-updates-rcna607738",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-06T15:37:02+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Democrats have won 253 House seats to Republicans' 157 with races still uncalled, and are leading in Alaska and Mississippi Senate contests.",
      "publisher": "0 NBC News NBC News",
      "published_at": "2026-11-06T12:31:55.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/live-blog/trump-congress-midterm-elections-mississippi-alaska-live-updates-rcna607738"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 99%; market is fully aligned with reported Democratic sweep, with the Alaska and Mississippi tallies representing the last residual uncertainty."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxbluetsunamicombo-27feb/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBLUETSUNAMICOMBO-27FEB",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "0 NBC News NBC News: Live updates: Trump heads to NASA expo after GOP’s midterm elections d",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/live-blog/trump-congress-midterm-elections-mississippi-alaska-live-updates-rcna607738",
      "published_at": "2026-11-06T12:31:55.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-06T15:37:02+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026110603 published 2026-11-06T12:31:55.000Z signature sha256-4b915cdf199… ← underlying event all signals →