Bessent keeping Treasury post; odds of exit stay at 9%

Name: Bessent keeping Treasury post; odds of exit stay at 9%
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-11-07T14:39:51+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

9% · $53K 24h

record: CMSIG20261107VS04 | category: volume-spike | target: CM-EVT-KZSP2MGN63 | published: 2026-11-07

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices Bessent departing the Trump administration before 2027 at just 9%, market rates him as likely to stay.
$53K in 24h is 69% of all-time contract volume, a large share suggesting this question is newly active.
Fresh attention may reflect spillover from the Miller departure spike (Spike 0), prompting traders to reprice other cabinet exit risks.
Contract resolves end-2026.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] volume_anomaly

liquidity poly_vol_24h: $53.2K

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.81 / 1.00
prompt_template: volume_spike_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/who-will-leave-trump-administration-before-2027/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0xe51901c28b674d46cca978bb16790dbb42e291c31ce2acc8faa7bb16960c8eda

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-scott-bessent-leave-the-trump-admin-vol-53176/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-scott-bessent-leave-the-trump-admin-vol-53176.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("will-scott-bessent-leave-the-trump-admin-vol-53176")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261107VS04",
  "published_at": "2026-11-07T14:39:51+00:00",
  "detection": "volume_spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-KZSP2MGN63",
  "target_event_slug": "who-will-leave-trump-administration-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will anyone leave the Trump Administration before 2027?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices Bessent departing the Trump administration before 2027 at just 9%, market rates him as likely to stay.",
    "$53K in 24h is 69% of all-time contract volume, a large share suggesting this question is newly active.",
    "Fresh attention may reflect spillover from the Miller departure spike (Spike 0), prompting traders to reprice other cabinet exit risks.",
    "Contract resolves end-2026."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 53176.268415999984
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.81,
    "prompt_template": "volume_spike_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/who-will-leave-trump-administration-before-2027/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will anyone leave the Trump Administration before 2027?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/who-will-leave-trump-administration-before-2027",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-07T14:39:51+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20261107VS04 published 2026-11-07T14:39:51+00:00 signature sha256-64ad715faac… ← underlying event all signals →