Will anyone leave the Trump Administration before 2027? [ resolves 2025-12 – 2026-12 ]
Will Markwayne Mullin leave the Trump administration before 2027?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 21 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Bongino | 2025-12-18 | 100.0% | — | $5.1K | C | 0x4e3fa0…7309 | ||
| Pam Bondi | 2026-04-02 | 99.9% | — | $365K | C | 0x79e008…628a | ||
| Lori Chavez-DeRemer | 2026-04-20 | 99.0% | — | $7.1K | C | 0x8ac414…04e8 | ||
| Tulsi Gabbard | 2026-05-22 | 99.9% | — | $101K | C | 0x4f0f48…dd64 | ||
| Markwayne Mullin | 2026-12-31 | 38.0% | — | $404 | C | 0x51397c…dd57 | ||
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 2026-12-31 | 36.0% | $12 | $86K | C | 0xbb0d24…560f | ||
| Pete Hegseth | 2026-12-31 | 36.0% | $6 | $109K | C | 0xeae757…f461 | ||
| David Sacks | 2026-12-31 | 35.8% | — | $8.7K | C | 0x41e7c2…d98d | ||
| Howard Lutnick | 2026-12-31 | 32.0% | $16 | $92K | C | 0x6eb866…8483 | ||
| Kash Patel | 2026-12-31 | 30.0% | $3 | $299K | C | 0xde2be5…badf | ||
| Lee Zeldin | 2026-12-31 | 26.0% | $19 | $31K | C | 0xa9eb38…d2d3 | ||
| Karoline Leavitt | 2026-12-31 | 22.0% | $66 | $43K | C | 0x1960b1…bcb6 | ||
| Susie Wiles | 2026-12-31 | 22.0% | $144 | $54K | C | 0xa8ce9e…90be | ||
| Kristi Noem | 2026-12-31 | 20.3% | — | $96K | C | 0xc37f85…a8fd | ||
| Russell Vought | 2026-12-31 | 20.0% | — | $274 | C | 0xa2df57…ec27 | ||
| John Ratcliffe | 2026-12-31 | 16.0% | — | $554 | C | 0xc3bbe4…8213 | ||
| Tom Homan | 2026-12-31 | 13.0% | — | $172 | C | 0xaaf71e…1127 | ||
| Marco Rubio | 2026-12-31 | 12.0% | $59 | $15K | C | 0x48a3e9…b08a | ||
| Scott Bessent | 2026-12-31 | 9.2% | — | $3.1K | C | 0xe51901…8eda | ||
| Stephen Miller | 2026-12-31 | 6.7% | — | $2.2K | C | 0x8e2c84…5b60 | ||
| Dan Scavino | 2026-12-31 | 5.4% | — | $137 | C | 0x133cb0…6cd1 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (2)
official information from the Trump administration from rules text a consensus of credible reopening from rules text
recent wire items
- Fresh volume returns to Miller full-exit odds, priced near zero 4% · $27K 24h
- Polymarket prices Stephen Miller leaving the Trump administration entirely before 2027 at just 4%.
- $27K in 24h is 57% of all-time volume, the contract is newly active, almost certainly driven by the Deputy Chief spike (Spike 0).
- The gap between 95% (Deputy role exit, Spike 0) and 4% (full admin exit) implies the market expects a role change, not a departure.
- Resolves end-2026.
- Bessent keeping Treasury post; odds of exit stay at 9% 9% · $53K 24h
- Polymarket prices Bessent departing the Trump administration before 2027 at just 9%, market rates him as likely to stay.
- $53K in 24h is 69% of all-time contract volume, a large share suggesting this question is newly active.
- Fresh attention may reflect spillover from the Miller departure spike (Spike 0), prompting traders to reprice other cabinet exit risks.
- Contract resolves end-2026.
- Hegseth exit odds hold at 32% through a volume push 32% · $74K 24h
- Polymarket prices Hegseth leaving before 2027 at 32%, elevated tail risk, nearly one-in-three implied probability.
- $74K in 24h is 27% of all-time volume, the largest single-session share the contract has seen.
- 32% is a meaningfully high exit probability for a sitting cabinet secretary, suggesting ongoing controversy is being priced.
- Resolves end-2026; weeks remain for a potential personnel change.
- Miller administration exit odds stay near zero as trading picks up 3% · $29K 24h
- 3% price on the broader admin exit contract echoes the near-certainty on Spike 0.
- Polymarket logs $29K in 24h, 60% of all-time, reinforcing coordinated cross-venue flow.
- Pairing with Kalshi's 97% NO (Spike 0) shows consistent cross-venue conviction.
- Resolves end of 2026; near-zero pricing reflects no credible exit pathway.
- Bessent exit odds stay well under 25% despite a fresh volume test 8% · $50K 24h
- 8% pricing places Bessent's departure firmly in low-probability tail territory.
- Polymarket sees $50K in 24h, 70% of all-time, a sharp concentrated burst.
- High share of all-time volume on a single session suggests a specific rumour or report prompted position checks.
- Resolves end of 2026; market decisively rejects the departure scenario.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/who-will-leave-trump-administration-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/who-will-leave-trump-administration-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("who-will-leave-trump-administration-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-KZSP2MGN63",
"slug": "who-will-leave-trump-administration-before-2027",
"question": "Will anyone leave the Trump Administration before 2027?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"trump",
"administration-turnover",
"us-government",
"personnel-changes",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 21,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1320077,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 52,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from the Trump administration",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reopening",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}