{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261026VS05",
  "record_slug": "will-the-nasdaq-100-be-above-30999-99-at-vol-15189",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-26T14:48:56+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Nasdaq-100 above 31K by year-end stays near-certain on Kalshi",
  "telemetry": "99% · $15K 24h",
  "headline": "NDX above 31K end-2026: 99% on $15K Kalshi flow",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-11-08",
    "outcome": "YES",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 1,
    "resolved_at": "2026-10-27"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-HYFSJ2CNW7",
  "target_event_slug": "kxnasdaq100maxy-26dec31h1600",
  "event_question": "What will be the highest price reached by the Nasdaq-100 in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXNASDAQ100MAXY-26DEC31H1600-T30999.99",
    "question_raw": "Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 30999.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?",
    "current_price": 0.99,
    "volume_24h_usd": 15189.78,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 36468.52,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-08T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "At 99%, the market treats the Nasdaq-100 clearing 31,000 by Dec 31 as essentially resolved.",
    "42% of all-time Kalshi volume on this contract arrived in 24 hours.",
    "With NDX well above that threshold, volume likely reflects position harvesting near expiry.",
    "Resolves at 4pm EST on December 31, 2026 on the official Nasdaq-100 close."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 15189.78
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: What will be the highest price reached by the Nasdaq-10",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxnasdaq100maxy-26dec31h1600",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-26T14:48:56+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-nasdaq-100-be-above-30999-99-at-vol-15189/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-nasdaq-100-be-above-30999-99-at-vol-15189.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}