{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110604",
  "record_slug": "new-alaska-senator-elected-2026-kalshi-3-2026-11-06",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-06T13:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "New Alaska senator odds stay near the floor despite Democratic leads",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 3%",
  "headline": "New Alaska senator elected 2026: Kalshi 3%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-08",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-KQWMXB6NX7",
  "target_event_slug": "senateak-26",
  "event_question": "Will a new senator be elected to represent Alaska in the U.S. Senate?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "SENATEAK-26-R",
    "question_raw": "Will Republicans win the Senate race in Alaska?",
    "current_price": 0.03,
    "volume_24h_usd": 69296.83,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "United States Congress",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-04T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi puts only 3% on a new senator being elected to represent Alaska, despite news reporting Democrats lead there.",
    "The contract framing and low price may reflect question-specific resolution criteria rather than a denial of the Democratic lead in the race itself.",
    "The broader Democratic wave is priced at 99% on the blue tsunami contract, making the Alaska contract's 3% a potential resolution-mechanics anomaly worth monitoring.",
    "Resolves via United States Congress certification; the gap between the 99% wave price and 3% Alaska-seat price warrants close attention to the question's exact resolution criteria."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "democracynow.org",
          "source_url": "https://www.democracynow.org/2026/11/6/headlines",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-06T15:37:02+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Democrats are leading by thin margins in both the Alaska and Mississippi Senate races as vote counting continues after the midterm sweep.",
      "publisher": "democracynow.org",
      "published_at": "2026-11-06T13:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.democracynow.org/2026/11/6/headlines"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract at 3%; the sharp divergence from the overall wave pricing signals this contract's resolution terms may differ from simple race outcome."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "democracynow.org: Headlines for November 06, 2026 | Democracy Now!",
      "url": "https://www.democracynow.org/2026/11/6/headlines",
      "published_at": "2026-11-06T13:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-06T15:37:02+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/new-alaska-senator-elected-2026-kalshi-3-2026-11-06/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/new-alaska-senator-elected-2026-kalshi-3-2026-11-06.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}