{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110605",
  "record_slug": "major-crypto-exchange-insolvency-in-2026-polymarket-2-2026-11-06",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-06T22:00:15.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Major crypto exchange insolvency in 2026 stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 2%",
  "headline": "Major crypto exchange insolvency in 2026: Polymarket 2%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-08",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-D87V37GQ54",
  "target_event_slug": "major-cex-insolvent-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will a major centralized cryptocurrency exchange become insolvent in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x8c8d8c91540aedf3f4ca4194256e9421843ef122155284129f3f5057ad5ec703",
    "question_raw": "Major CEX insolvent in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.023,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1487.95,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a major centralized cryptocurrency exchange insolvency in 2026 at just 2%, despite the Binance hack and MEXC sanctions making headlines.",
    "The $6.34 billion Binance hack is the largest single exchange security event reported this cycle, yet the market is not pricing meaningful insolvency risk, Binance has previously absorbed large incidents.",
    "MEXC's US ban is a regulatory action, not an insolvency event; the market appears to distinguish enforcement from exchange failure.",
    "The Bitcoin minimum price Kalshi contract at 5% for January 1, 2027 implies downside tail risk in crypto broadly, but the exchange insolvency market at 2% suggests markets do not see contagion as likely."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Ana Paula Pereira",
          "source_url": "https://ct.com/news/what-happened-in-crypto-today",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-07T14:38:54+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Binance suffered a $6.34 billion hack traced through fake recruiter links, and Treasury sanctioned MEXC Global over alleged $16 billion in illicit transactions, raising exchange security concerns.",
      "publisher": "Ana Paula Pereira",
      "published_at": "2026-11-06T22:00:15.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://ct.com/news/what-happened-in-crypto-today"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket holds the major exchange insolvency contract at 2% even as a $6.34 billion hack and a major exchange ban dominate crypto news this week."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Ana Paula Pereira: Today in crypto: MEXC US ban, Binance hack and exchange security",
      "url": "https://ct.com/news/what-happened-in-crypto-today",
      "published_at": "2026-11-06T22:00:15.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-07T14:38:54+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/major-crypto-exchange-insolvency-in-2026-polymarket-2-2026-11-06/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/major-crypto-exchange-insolvency-in-2026-polymarket-2-2026-11-06.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}