Gas prices below the highest strikes remain well-favored

Name: Gas prices below the highest strikes remain well-favored
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-11-06T11:57:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Kalshi ladder

record: CMSIG2026110607 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-YC0V551YX4 | published: 2026-11-06

4-bullet brief | narrative

The ladder shows 54% on gas prices remaining below $3.60, with probability falling sharply at lower strikes: only 6% below $2.60.
Trump's threat of renewed Iran strikes introduces upside oil-price risk that the ladder partially reflects, with no strike below $2.00 drawing meaningful odds.
The market-implied range of $3.20 to $3.60 reflects an Iran war risk premium already embedded in energy pricing.
Resolves via AAA national average gas price data; the $3.40-$3.60 band is where the distribution is most concentrated given current geopolitics.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market

story: Trump signaled an imminent decision on resumed U.S. strikes in Iran, maintaining military threat posture while also pursuing diplomacy through Qatar.exa_search → Frank Andrews · as_of 2026-11-06T15:37:02+00:00
publisher: Frank Andrews
published_at: 2026-11-06T11:57:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-trump-us-strait-hormuz-persian-gulf/

[02] pm_response

interp: Ladder distribution provided; the $3.60 strike at 54% is the median boundary, with Iran escalation risk the key variable for the upper tail.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxaaagasmin-26dec31/

external

venue_a: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAAAGASMIN-26DEC31-2.00

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gas-price-below-3-60-by-year-end-ladder-implies-54-2026-11-06/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/gas-price-below-3-60-by-year-end-ladder-implies-54-2026-11-06.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("gas-price-below-3-60-by-year-end-ladder-implies-54-2026-11-06")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110607",
  "published_at": "2026-11-06T11:57:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-YC0V551YX4",
  "target_event_slug": "kxaaagasmin-26dec31",
  "event_question": "National average gas price by Dec 31, 2026",
  "bullets": [
    "The ladder shows 54% on gas prices remaining below $3.60, with probability falling sharply at lower strikes: only 6% below $2.60.",
    "Trump's threat of renewed Iran strikes introduces upside oil-price risk that the ladder partially reflects, with no strike below $2.00 drawing meaningful odds.",
    "The market-implied range of $3.20 to $3.60 reflects an Iran war risk premium already embedded in energy pricing.",
    "Resolves via AAA national average gas price data; the $3.40-$3.60 band is where the distribution is most concentrated given current geopolitics."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Frank Andrews",
          "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-trump-us-strait-hormuz-persian-gulf/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-06T15:37:02+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Trump signaled an imminent decision on resumed U.S. strikes in Iran, maintaining military threat posture while also pursuing diplomacy through Qatar.",
      "publisher": "Frank Andrews",
      "published_at": "2026-11-06T11:57:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-trump-us-strait-hormuz-persian-gulf/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder distribution provided; the $3.60 strike at 54% is the median boundary, with Iran escalation risk the key variable for the upper tail."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxaaagasmin-26dec31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXAAAGASMIN-26DEC31-2.00",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Frank Andrews: Iran War Updates: Trump touts imminent decision on new U.S. strikes, k",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-trump-us-strait-hormuz-persian-gulf/",
      "published_at": "2026-11-06T11:57:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-06T15:37:02+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026110607 published 2026-11-06T11:57:00.000Z signature sha256-ec8a0e2a2b8… ← underlying event all signals →