Will US gas prices reach below $2.00 per gallon at any point during 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-07 (156D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 10 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $2 | 2027-01-07 | 8.0% | — | $115 | A | KXAAAGASMIN-….00 | ||
| ≤ $2.2 | 2027-01-07 | 28.0% | — | $111 | A | KXAAAGASMIN-….20 | ||
| ≤ $2.4 | 2027-01-07 | 17.0% | — | $11 | A | KXAAAGASMIN-….40 | ||
| ≤ $2.6 | 2027-01-07 | 34.0% | — | $161 | A | KXAAAGASMIN-….60 | ||
| ≤ $2.8 | 2027-01-07 | 22.0% | $23 | $367 | A | KXAAAGASMIN-….80 | ||
| ≤ $3 | 2027-01-07 | 21.0% | — | $1.3K | A | KXAAAGASMIN-….00 | ||
| ≤ $3.2 | 2027-01-07 | 35.0% | $1 | $2.2K | A | KXAAAGASMIN-….20 | ||
| ≤ $3.4 | 2027-01-07 | 36.0% | $4 | $1.9K | A | KXAAAGASMIN-….40 | ||
| ≤ $3.6 | 2027-01-07 | 58.0% | $3 | $5.3K | A | KXAAAGASMIN-….60 | ||
| ≤ $3.8 | 2027-01-07 | 99.0% | — | $8.0K | A | KXAAAGASMIN-….80 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | AAA | not provided | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If AAA reports that the price of national average regular gas for the US is less than $3.80 at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes.
Please note: This market only considers AAA prices posted from Issuance (March 23, 2026) through December 31, 2026, inclusive; prices reported earlier in 2026 do not count.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "AAA" sources (1) · single authority
AAA committed source
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YES | Will average **gas prices** be below $3.80 by Dec 31, 2026? | kalshi | 2026-07-06 | 99% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Gas prices below the highest strikes remain well-favored Kalshi ladder
- The ladder shows 54% on gas prices remaining below $3.60, with probability falling sharply at lower strikes: only 6% below $2.60.
- Trump's threat of renewed Iran strikes introduces upside oil-price risk that the ladder partially reflects, with no strike below $2.00 drawing meaningful odds.
- The market-implied range of $3.20 to $3.60 reflects an Iran war risk premium already embedded in energy pricing.
- Resolves via AAA national average gas price data; the $3.40-$3.60 band is where the distribution is most concentrated given current geopolitics.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxaaagasmin-26dec31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxaaagasmin-26dec31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxaaagasmin-26dec31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-YC0V551YX4",
"slug": "kxaaagasmin-26dec31",
"question": "Will US gas prices reach below $2.00 per gallon at any point during 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"us-gas-prices",
"energy-commodities",
"2026",
"price-floor",
"economic-indicators"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 10,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 19403,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "AAA",
"resolution_source_url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "AAA",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "AAA",
"url": "https://gasprices.aaa.com/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}