{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110503",
  "record_slug": "oct-payrolls-implied-60k-70k-kalshi-ladder-58-48-2026-11-05",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-05T09:38:43.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "October payrolls consensus sits near 60K to 70K",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Oct payrolls implied 60K-70K: Kalshi ladder 58%/48%",
  "category_tag": "PRE_EVENT_PRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-11-08",
    "outcome": "YES",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 1,
    "resolved_at": "2026-11-06"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76",
  "target_event_slug": "kxpayrolls-26oct",
  "event_question": "October 2026 nonfarm payrolls",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26OCT-T70000",
    "question_raw": "Will above 70000 jobs be added in October 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.48,
    "volume_24h_usd": 576.97,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "BLS",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-05T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder puts 58% above 60K and 48% above 70K, pinning the market's central estimate in the 60K-70K range for October payrolls.",
    "The economist consensus of roughly 59K is consistent with the ladder's modal range, leaving the market neither materially optimistic nor pessimistic relative to the street.",
    "The 89% above zero confirms near-zero risk of an outright job loss print, but the 29% above 100K shows meaningful upside tail risk remains.",
    "Resolves via the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report; hurricane or strike-related distortions to October data are a known settlement edge case."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Sean Conlon, Chloe Taylor",
          "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/05/treasury-yields-bonds-interest-rates.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-05T16:02:36+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Treasury yields were little changed Thursday as traders positioned ahead of Friday's October jobs report, with economists forecasting roughly 59,000 jobs added.",
      "publisher": "Sean Conlon, Chloe Taylor",
      "published_at": "2026-11-05T09:38:43.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/05/treasury-yields-bonds-interest-rates.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder provided; distribution spans a wide range, reflecting genuine uncertainty ahead of the release."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Sean Conlon, Chloe Taylor: Treasury yields: traders look ahead to jobs data",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/05/treasury-yields-bonds-interest-rates.html",
      "published_at": "2026-11-05T09:38:43.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-05T16:02:36+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-payrolls-implied-60k-70k-kalshi-ladder-58-48-2026-11-05/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/oct-payrolls-implied-60k-70k-kalshi-ladder-58-48-2026-11-05.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}