Fed rate hike by settlement stays a long shot at 22%

Name: Fed rate hike by settlement stays a long shot at 22%
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-07-29T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 22%

record: CMSIG2026072901 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-VZKJ3PV470 | published: 2026-07-29

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket puts only 22% on the Fed raising its benchmark rate by the settlement date.
Citadel Securities publicly called for a July hike, but the Polymarket contract at 22% shows markets are unconvinced by that argument.
The broader 2026 Polymarket contract on any Fed hike this year sits at 76%, indicating markets see a hike as likely eventually, just not now.
Resolution via UMA oracle; the near-term 22% vs. full-year 76% gap reflects a debate over timing, not destination.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Citadel Securities argues Fed Chair Kevin Warsh should surprise markets with a July hike, while 104 economists and bitcoin analysts expect a hold.exa_search → coindesk.com · as_of 2026-07-29T10:35:12+00:00
publisher: coindesk.com
published_at: 2026-07-29T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/07/29/citadel-bets-on-a-fed-rate-hike-wednesday-as-bitcoin-analysts-call-a-hold-someone-will-be-wrong

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket covers both the near-term settlement event at 22% and a full-year 2026 hike event at 76%, revealing a sharp timing wedge.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/fed-rate-hike-by/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0xac550c316d635e7f2dc810de6d6afd531e254b3c9c7d56d32d14337e7c3979e4

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-hike-by-settlement-date-polymarket-22-2026-07-29/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-hike-by-settlement-date-polymarket-22-2026-07-29.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("fed-hike-by-settlement-date-polymarket-22-2026-07-29")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072901",
  "published_at": "2026-07-29T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-VZKJ3PV470",
  "target_event_slug": "fed-rate-hike-by",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve raise its benchmark interest rate by the settlement date?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts only 22% on the Fed raising its benchmark rate by the settlement date.",
    "Citadel Securities publicly called for a July hike, but the Polymarket contract at 22% shows markets are unconvinced by that argument.",
    "The broader 2026 Polymarket contract on any Fed hike this year sits at 76%, indicating markets see a hike as likely eventually, just not now.",
    "Resolution via UMA oracle; the near-term 22% vs. full-year 76% gap reflects a debate over timing, not destination."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "coindesk.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/07/29/citadel-bets-on-a-fed-rate-hike-wednesday-as-bitcoin-analysts-call-a-hold-someone-will-be-wrong",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-29T10:35:12+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Citadel Securities argues Fed Chair Kevin Warsh should surprise markets with a July hike, while 104 economists and bitcoin analysts expect a hold.",
      "publisher": "coindesk.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-29T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/07/29/citadel-bets-on-a-fed-rate-hike-wednesday-as-bitcoin-analysts-call-a-hold-someone-will-be-wrong"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket covers both the near-term settlement event at 22% and a full-year 2026 hike event at 76%, revealing a sharp timing wedge."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/fed-rate-hike-by/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "coindesk.com: FOMC preview: Citadel bets on a Fed rate hike Wednesday as bitcoin (BT",
      "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/07/29/citadel-bets-on-a-fed-rate-hike-wednesday-as-bitcoin-analysts-call-a-hold-someone-will-be-wrong",
      "published_at": "2026-07-29T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-29T10:35:12+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026072901 published 2026-07-29T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-66ded6b81c3… ← underlying event all signals →