Will the Federal Reserve raise its benchmark interest rate by the settlement date? [ resolves 2026-04 – 2026-12 ]
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 2026-04-29 | 0.1% | — | $131K | A | 0x365ea4…17d9 | ||
| June | 2026-06-17 | 0.1% | — | $46K | A | 0x2dd232…eddf | ||
| October | 2026-12-09 | 64.0% | $4.3K | $285K | A | 0x059db2…6d4e | ||
| September | 2026-12-09 | 61.0% | $33K | $445K | A | 0x73d8a8…da7c | ||
| July | 2026-12-09 | 0.0% | $16K | $586K | A | 0xac550c…79e4 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm sources (3) · single authority
- federalreserve.gov source of record venue-listed
- the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm) from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? | polymarket | 2026-07-29 | 0% |
Resolution dates are the venue's settlement timestamps (1 resolved market). Rows shown as "by [date]" carry the contract deadline: the venue no longer exposes a settlement time for them. PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
- Fed rate hike by settlement stays a long shot at 22% Polymarket 22%
- Polymarket puts only 22% on the Fed raising its benchmark rate by the settlement date.
- Citadel Securities publicly called for a July hike, but the Polymarket contract at 22% shows markets are unconvinced by that argument.
- The broader 2026 Polymarket contract on any Fed hike this year sits at 76%, indicating markets see a hike as likely eventually, just not now.
- Resolution via UMA oracle; the near-term 22% vs. full-year 76% gap reflects a debate over timing, not destination.
- Odds of a Fed hike by October hold near 50% 46% · $83K 24h
- 46%, market sits essentially at a coin-flip on whether the Fed delivers any hike by the October meeting.
- $83K in 24h is 40% of all-time; meaningful but not a washout, suggesting ongoing two-sided debate.
- July 9 positioning comes after recent CPI and labor data prints keeping the hiking option alive on the FOMC table.
- October meeting is the next credible window for action; price reflects a genuinely open macro call.
- Fed hike by September sits at 35% on fresh flows 35% · $60K 24h
- 35% price implies the market is genuinely split on whether the Fed resumes tightening by September.
- 24h volume $60K is 28% of all-time, suggesting renewed macro attention rather than a spike rumor.
- Fresh CPI, labor, or Fed communication likely reignited debate over the September meeting path.
- Resolves at the September 2026 FOMC decision.
- Heavy flows defend an 8% Fed hike probability into July 8% · $82K 24h
- Polymarket prices an 8% chance of a Fed rate hike at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, a slim but non-trivial tail.
- 24h volume of $82K is 45% of all-time contract volume, indicating a material re-engagement with this hawkish scenario.
- With the July meeting imminent, fresh capital at 8% likely reflects traders hedging against a surprise hawkish pivot on inflation data.
- Resolution at July 2026 FOMC; any CPI or labor print before the meeting could rapidly reprice this contract.
- Capital splits evenly on a Fed hike before October 2026 45% · $44K 24h
- 45% sits at near-coin-flip territory, reflecting genuine macro uncertainty over the Fed's next move.
- $43K in 24h is 43% of all-time volume, meaningful re-engagement as the October meeting window enters focus.
- Fresh positioning likely tied to recent inflation data or Fed speakers nudging rate-path expectations.
- A move above 50% would signal the market tilting toward a hawkish surprise before year-end.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/fed-rate-hike-by/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/fed-rate-hike-by |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("fed-rate-hike-by") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-VZKJ3PV470",
"slug": "fed-rate-hike-by",
"question": "Will the Federal Reserve raise its benchmark interest rate by the settlement date?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"fed",
"fed-rates",
"fomc",
"inflation",
"monetary-policy"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1492923,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "federalreserve.gov",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "federalreserve.gov",
"url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}