{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110602",
  "record_slug": "nov-2026-cpi-m-m-kalshi-ladder-centered-near-0-1-to-0-0-2026-11-06",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "November CPI month-over-month stays near flat to slightly negative",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Nov 2026 CPI m/m: Kalshi ladder centered near -0.1 to 0.0%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-08",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-T57DHL6V48",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpi-26nov",
  "event_question": "November 2026 CPI month-over-month change",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26NOV-T0.0",
    "question_raw": "Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in November 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.34,
    "volume_24h_usd": 756.96,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-03-11T14:56:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder puts November 2026 CPI month-over-month in the -0.1% to 0.0% range: 70% above -0.1% but only 34% above 0.0%.",
    "The U.S. Bank outlook flags persistent inflation eroding spending power even as the labor market stays resilient, the near-flat CPI pricing suggests markets see inflation cooling modestly on a monthly basis.",
    "Only 10% probability above 0.2% and 7% above 0.3% indicates very little expectation of a renewed monthly surge in consumer prices.",
    "The Fed funds ladder (see wire above) prices one more hike, if November CPI prints flat or negative, that could be the last catalyst needed to pause."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "usbank.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.usbank.com/corporate-and-commercial-banking/insights/economy/outlook/weekly.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-07T14:38:54+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The U.S. Bank weekly outlook notes hiring strengthened in October while layoffs remain unusually low, keeping the economy on a steady but inflation-pressured path.",
      "publisher": "usbank.com",
      "published_at": "2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.usbank.com/corporate-and-commercial-banking/insights/economy/outlook/weekly.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder distribution implies the monthly CPI print for November 2026 is most likely near flat, with the sharp drop in probability above 0.0% reflecting market skepticism about a renewed monthly acceleration."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "usbank.com: Weekly Economic Outlook | U.S. Bank",
      "url": "https://www.usbank.com/corporate-and-commercial-banking/insights/economy/outlook/weekly.html",
      "published_at": "2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-07T14:38:54+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/nov-2026-cpi-m-m-kalshi-ladder-centered-near-0-1-to-0-0-2026-11-06/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/nov-2026-cpi-m-m-kalshi-ladder-centered-near-0-1-to-0-0-2026-11-06.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}