{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026072901",
  "record_slug": "fed-hike-by-settlement-date-polymarket-22-2026-07-29",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-29T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed rate hike by settlement stays a long shot at 22%",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 22%",
  "headline": "Fed hike by settlement date: Polymarket 22%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-08-01",
    "outcome": "NO",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 0,
    "resolved_at": "2026-07-29"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-VZKJ3PV470",
  "target_event_slug": "fed-rate-hike-by",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve raise its benchmark interest rate by the settlement date?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xac550c316d635e7f2dc810de6d6afd531e254b3c9c7d56d32d14337e7c3979e4",
    "question_raw": "Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.216,
    "volume_24h_usd": 32862.914967,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-09T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts only 22% on the Fed raising its benchmark rate by the settlement date.",
    "Citadel Securities publicly called for a July hike, but the Polymarket contract at 22% shows markets are unconvinced by that argument.",
    "The broader 2026 Polymarket contract on any Fed hike this year sits at 76%, indicating markets see a hike as likely eventually, just not now.",
    "Resolution via UMA oracle; the near-term 22% vs. full-year 76% gap reflects a debate over timing, not destination."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "coindesk.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/07/29/citadel-bets-on-a-fed-rate-hike-wednesday-as-bitcoin-analysts-call-a-hold-someone-will-be-wrong",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-29T10:35:12+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Citadel Securities argues Fed Chair Kevin Warsh should surprise markets with a July hike, while 104 economists and bitcoin analysts expect a hold.",
      "publisher": "coindesk.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-29T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/07/29/citadel-bets-on-a-fed-rate-hike-wednesday-as-bitcoin-analysts-call-a-hold-someone-will-be-wrong"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket covers both the near-term settlement event at 22% and a full-year 2026 hike event at 76%, revealing a sharp timing wedge."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "coindesk.com: FOMC preview: Citadel bets on a Fed rate hike Wednesday as bitcoin (BT",
      "url": "https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2026/07/29/citadel-bets-on-a-fed-rate-hike-wednesday-as-bitcoin-analysts-call-a-hold-someone-will-be-wrong",
      "published_at": "2026-07-29T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-29T10:35:12+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-hike-by-settlement-date-polymarket-22-2026-07-29/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/fed-hike-by-settlement-date-polymarket-22-2026-07-29.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}