{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110406",
  "record_slug": "congress-approves-iran-deal-by-2026-polymarket-9-2026-11-04",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-04T13:19:14.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Congress approving an Iran deal by 2026 stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 9%",
  "headline": "Congress approves Iran deal by 2026: Polymarket 9%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-08",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-PB2TWNBNL3",
  "target_event_slug": "congress-approves-iran-deal-in-2026-20260616005217959",
  "event_question": "Will Congress approve an Iran deal by 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x0665610d8a06655edb83376e45fd8d2dd78889d2b3a1b2668efe398514cf87ae",
    "question_raw": "Congress approves Iran deal in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.09,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts 9% on Congress approving an Iran deal by 2026, a low but non-trivial probability given the new political landscape.",
    "Democrats taking Congress on an anti-war platform adds modest pressure toward a deal, but the market still sees a congressional Iran deal this year as unlikely.",
    "Companion Polymarket contract CM-EVT-WD982793G1 prices a full U.S. invasion of Iran at 12%, suggesting the market sees continued conflict as more likely than a legislative resolution.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle; the compressed year-end timeline is the main constraint keeping this probability in single digits."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "The Associated Press",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/midterm-elections-democrats-republicans-trump-b1d26390b7ed7968435089be6d3bf612",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-06T15:37:02+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Democrats have won control of Congress after an election largely shaped by the unpopular Iran war, raising questions about Trump's war authority.",
      "publisher": "The Associated Press",
      "published_at": "2026-11-04T13:19:14.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/midterm-elections-democrats-republicans-trump-b1d26390b7ed7968435089be6d3bf612"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket at 9%; market prices a congressional Iran deal as a long shot even as Democrats prepare to take power on a platform defined by the war."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "The Associated Press: The Latest: Trump defends Iran war after voters give Democrats control",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/midterm-elections-democrats-republicans-trump-b1d26390b7ed7968435089be6d3bf612",
      "published_at": "2026-11-04T13:19:14.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-06T15:37:02+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/congress-approves-iran-deal-by-2026-polymarket-9-2026-11-04/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/congress-approves-iran-deal-by-2026-polymarket-9-2026-11-04.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}