{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG20261105VS01",
  "record_slug": "will-democratics-win-the-senate-race-in-vol-3512612",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-05T07:49:08+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Fresh Election Day volume backs Democrats in Mississippi Senate",
  "telemetry": "96% · $3.5M 24h",
  "headline": "MS Senate Dem win: 96% as $3.5M floods in today",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-08",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-6R8L57X0Y4",
  "target_event_slug": "senatems-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Mississippi Senate race be decided by January 4, 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "SENATEMS-26-D",
    "question_raw": "Will Democratics win the Senate race in Mississippi?",
    "current_price": 0.964,
    "volume_24h_usd": 3512612.25,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 12960487.81,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-04T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a Democratic Mississippi Senate win at 96%, leaving only a 4% tail for a Republican hold.",
    "27% of all-time volume, $3.5M, cleared in 24 hours, the single heaviest trading day on this contract.",
    "Election Day turnout data and early returns appear to be reinforcing the dominant pricing consensus.",
    "Resolves on certified Mississippi Senate outcome; market leaves a narrow but non-zero upset tail."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 3512612.25
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the Mississippi Senate race be decided by January ",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/senatems-26",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-05T07:49:08+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-democratics-win-the-senate-race-in-vol-3512612/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-democratics-win-the-senate-race-in-vol-3512612.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
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