Labour NZ most-seats bid holds well below 50%

Name: Labour NZ most-seats bid holds well below 50%
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-11-06T07:48:47+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

34% · $24K 24h

record: CMSIG20261106VS02 | category: volume-spike | target: CM-EVT-DB92W53ZH3 | published: 2026-11-06

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket prices Labour winning the most seats at 34%, leaving the field favoring other parties at 66%.
24h volume of $24K is 33% of all-time volume, a meaningful but not dominant surge, reflecting building interest.
Attention likely tied to tightening polling or an upcoming electoral event in New Zealand drawing fresh capital.
Contract resolves on official New Zealand House of Representatives seat count after the relevant election.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] volume_anomaly

liquidity poly_vol_24h: $23.6K

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.81 / 1.00
prompt_template: volume_spike_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/new-zealand-legislative-election-winner/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x741d99d33224258ad4536be7adbfdea7cacdaec616ce88e13755bfafde9c6d19

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-labour-party-win-the-most-seats-in-vol-23579/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-labour-party-win-the-most-seats-in-vol-23579.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("will-labour-party-win-the-most-seats-in-vol-23579")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261106VS02",
  "published_at": "2026-11-06T07:48:47+00:00",
  "detection": "volume_spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-DB92W53ZH3",
  "target_event_slug": "new-zealand-legislative-election-winner",
  "event_question": "Will the New Zealand Labour Party win the most seats in the next legislative election?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices Labour winning the most seats at 34%, leaving the field favoring other parties at 66%.",
    "24h volume of $24K is 33% of all-time volume, a meaningful but not dominant surge, reflecting building interest.",
    "Attention likely tied to tightening polling or an upcoming electoral event in New Zealand drawing fresh capital.",
    "Contract resolves on official New Zealand House of Representatives seat count after the relevant election."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 23579.641455999998
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.81,
    "prompt_template": "volume_spike_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/new-zealand-legislative-election-winner/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the New Zealand Labour Party win the most seats in",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/new-zealand-legislative-election-winner",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-06T07:48:47+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20261106VS02 published 2026-11-06T07:48:47+00:00 signature sha256-567ad2f036b… ← underlying event all signals →