Will the New Zealand Labour Party win the most seats in the next legislative election? [ resolved 2026-11-07 ]

polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot

polymarket 33 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
National Party	2026-11-07	97.2%	—	$22K	A	`0xba155b…bd04`
Labour Party	2026-11-07	1.6%	—	$15K	A	`0x741d99…6d19`
Green Party	2026-11-07	0.1%	—	$3.7K	A	`0x88188d…198a`
ACT New Zealand	2026-11-07	0.1%	—	$3.7K	A	`0x1a7760…70a4`
New Zealand First Party	2026-11-07	0.1%	—	$3.6K	A	`0xcf3de2…433b`
Te Pāti Māori	2026-11-07	0.1%	—	$3.7K	A	`0x1d8559…db32`
Party A	2026-11-07	0.0%	—	—	A	`0xa341b5…59b6`
Party B	2026-11-07	0.0%	—	—	A	`0xb66004…ed47`
Party C	2026-11-07	0.0%	—	—	A	`0x457972…54d8`
Party D	2026-11-07	0.0%	—	—	A	`0x056632…af47`
Party E	2026-11-07	0.0%	—	—	A	`0xe68252…e873`
Party F	2026-11-07	0.0%	—	—	A	`0x0bd0aa…528f`
Party G	2026-11-07	0.0%	—	—	A	`0x75a6fc…d7e0`
Party H	2026-11-07	0.0%	—	—	A	`0x4fb57f…ca7b`
Party I	2026-11-07	0.0%	—	—	A	`0xfa2313…dff6`
Party J	2026-11-07	0.0%	—	—	A	`0x74181e…c080`
Party K	2026-11-07	0.0%	—	—	A	`0x977026…1f4a`
Party L	2026-11-07	0.0%	—	—	A	`0x23d779…4a37`
Party M	2026-11-07	0.0%	—	—	A	`0x75929e…1a2e`
Party N	2026-11-07	0.0%	—	—	A	`0x11c542…d36f`
Party O	2026-11-07	0.0%	—	—	A	`0xbe8852…64ca`
Party P	2026-11-07	0.0%	—	—	A	`0x5a866c…7908`
Party Q	2026-11-07	0.0%	—	—	A	`0x6e8ffe…8ed0`
Party R	2026-11-07	0.0%	—	—	A	`0x9188bf…f693`
Party S	2026-11-07	0.0%	—	—	A	`0x2f812c…0557`
Party T	2026-11-07	0.0%	—	—	A	`0xf799c7…a4f4`
Party U	2026-11-07	0.0%	—	—	A	`0xef6251…5116`
Party V	2026-11-07	0.0%	—	—	A	`0x7e6d6b…1988`
Party W	2026-11-07	0.0%	—	—	A	`0xc40d30…8e87`
Party X	2026-11-07	0.0%	—	—	A	`0x33a331…c497`
Party Y	2026-11-07	0.0%	—	—	A	`0x1b19a6…40b9`
Party Z	2026-11-07	0.0%	—	—	A	`0xe10f54…d948`
Another party	2026-11-07	0.0%	—	—	A	`0xcc0878…2da0`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	not provided	not provided	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 33 markets · share this text

A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).

platform source field polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned

sources (2) · stated precedence rule

elections.nz venue-listed New Zealand Electoral Commission committed source

recent wire items

2026-11-07T14:39:51+00:00 volume-spike
Traders pile into National Party winning NZ seats at 99% 99% · $286K 24h
- Polymarket prices National Party winning the most House seats at 99%, effectively a settled outcome.
- $286K in 24h represents 73% of all-time contract volume, flagging a sharp burst of late attention.
- Fresh volume into an already-consensus market suggests either arbitrage closing or hedging against the 1% tail.
- Contract resolves on official NZ election seat count.
2026-11-07T14:39:51+00:00 volume-spike
Labour NZ most-seats odds stay near zero through fresh volume 1% · $210K 24h
- Polymarket prices Labour winning the most NZ House seats at just 1%, market treats this as near-impossible.
- $210K in 24h is 73% of all-time volume, mirroring the simultaneous National Party spike (Spike 1).
- Paired volume across both contracts signals active re-pricing or position flattening on the same underlying event.
- Resolution tied to official NZ seat allocation.
2026-11-07T07:49:22+00:00 volume-spike
Traders pile into National Party leading the New Zealand House 57% · $150K 24h
- 57% pricing gives National a modest but clear plurality edge over Labour.
- Polymarket sees $150K in 24h, 61% of all-time, signaling sharp fresh attention.
- Paired surge with Spike 2 (Labour at 44%) confirms NZ election is active catalyst.
- Resolution tied to official New Zealand general election seat count.
2026-11-06T07:48:47+00:00 volume-spike
Labour NZ most-seats bid holds well below 50% 34% · $24K 24h
- Polymarket prices Labour winning the most seats at 34%, leaving the field favoring other parties at 66%.
- 24h volume of $24K is 33% of all-time volume, a meaningful but not dominant surge, reflecting building interest.
- Attention likely tied to tightening polling or an upcoming electoral event in New Zealand drawing fresh capital.
- Contract resolves on official New Zealand House of Representatives seat count after the relevant election.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/new-zealand-legislative-election-winner/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/new-zealand-legislative-election-winner`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("new-zealand-legislative-election-winner")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-DB92W53ZH3",
  "slug": "new-zealand-legislative-election-winner",
  "question": "Will the New Zealand Labour Party win the most seats in the next legislative election?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "elections",
    "new-zealand",
    "2026",
    "parliament",
    "legislative"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 33,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 51784,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 84,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": "https://elections.nz/",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "New Zealand Electoral Commission",
  "resolution_source_list": [
    {
      "name": "elections.nz",
      "url": "https://elections.nz/",
      "provenance": "platform_api"
    },
    {
      "name": "New Zealand Electoral Commission",
      "url": null,
      "provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
    }
  ],
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-08-04T20:03:51.865287+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →