US negative GDP in 2026 remains a low-conviction fringe bet
Polymarket 8%
record: CMSIG2026070606 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-36YHF72CQ8 | published: 2026-07-06
4-bullet brief | narrative
- Polymarket prices only an 8% chance the United States records negative GDP growth in 2026.
- Despite June payrolls missing badly at 57,000, the market treats a full-year GDP contraction as a tail risk, not a base case.
- At 8%, the market is not fading the weak labor data outright, it is absorbing it while keeping recession pricing low.
- Resolves via the Bureau of Economic Analysis (bea.gov) full-year GDP report; negative growth requires two or more quarters of contraction to register annually.
atomic briefs | structured for retrieval
[01] news_event
significance
surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market
- story
- Ongoing U.S. economic data including the weak June jobs report has kept recession fears in circulation.exa_search → tradingeconomics.com · as_of 2026-07-06T12:00:14+00:00 [mediated]
- publisher
- tradingeconomics.com
- published_at
- 2026-07-06T06:59:15.688Z
[02] pm_response
- interp
- Polymarket at 8% shows the recession pricing remains firmly in tail territory despite the labor market deterioration evident in June's payroll print.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1 [editorial]
evaluation
News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.
- judge_engine
none — deterministic news-cycle scan- judge_verdict
- auto_published
- judge_confidence
- n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
- prompt_template
news_cycle_v1github · auditable- match_method
entity_slug_match (mechanical)
citation graph
Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.
internal
external
- venue_a
- polymarket · 0xd8c1b0a73653b1fb4fb6e8d13d0063d25810870d7ddf83e61fffb4de4522edf1
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-negative-gdp-growth-in-2026-polymarket-8-2026-07-06/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-negative-gdp-growth-in-2026-polymarket-8-2026-07-06.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_signal("us-negative-gdp-growth-in-2026-polymarket-8-2026-07-06") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
"provenance_version": "0.2.0",
"record_id": "CMSIG2026070606",
"published_at": "2026-07-06T06:59:15.688Z",
"detection": "news_cycle",
"category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
"secondary_tags": [],
"pre_news_classification": "lagging",
"target_event_id": "CM-EVT-36YHF72CQ8",
"target_event_slug": "negative-gdp-growth-in-2026",
"event_question": "Will the United States experience negative GDP growth in 2026?",
"bullets": [
"Polymarket prices only an 8% chance the United States records negative GDP growth in 2026.",
"Despite June payrolls missing badly at 57,000, the market treats a full-year GDP contraction as a tail risk, not a base case.",
"At 8%, the market is not fading the weak labor data outright, it is absorbing it while keeping recession pricing low.",
"Resolves via the Bureau of Economic Analysis (bea.gov) full-year GDP report; negative growth requires two or more quarters of contraction to register annually."
],
"atomic_claims": [
{
"type": "news_event",
"field_provenance": {
"story": {
"tier": "mediated",
"method": "exa_search",
"source": "tradingeconomics.com",
"source_url": "https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/news",
"retrieved_at": "2026-07-06T12:00:14+00:00"
}
},
"significance": {
"threshold": 5,
"threshold_unit": "rank",
"passed": true,
"reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
},
"story": "Ongoing U.S. economic data including the weak June jobs report has kept recession fears in circulation.",
"publisher": "tradingeconomics.com",
"published_at": "2026-07-06T06:59:15.688Z",
"source_url": "https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/news"
},
{
"type": "pm_response",
"field_provenance": {
"notes": {
"tier": "editorial",
"method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
}
},
"notes": "Polymarket at 8% shows the recession pricing remains firmly in tail territory despite the labor market deterioration evident in June's payroll print."
}
],
"evaluation": {
"judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
"judge_verdict": "auto_published",
"judge_confidence": null,
"prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
},
"citations": {
"internal": {
"cm_event": "/events/negative-gdp-growth-in-2026/",
"related": []
},
"external": {
"venue_a": null,
"venue_b": null,
"benchmark": null
}
},
"sources": [
{
"label": "tradingeconomics.com: United States News - Trading Economics",
"url": "https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/news",
"published_at": "2026-07-06T06:59:15.688Z",
"retrieved_at": "2026-07-06T12:00:14+00:00"
}
],
"field_provenance": {
"pm_data": "polymarket_api",
"news_context": "exa_search",
"editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
}
}
PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1