Will there be negative GDP growth in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-29 (178D) ]
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Negative GDP growth in 2026 | 2027-01-29 | 2.9% | — | $32K | A | 0xd8c1b0…edf1 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product sources (2) · single authority
recent wire items
- Negative GDP growth in 2026 stays a long shot Polymarket 3%
- The Polymarket contract on negative US GDP growth in 2026 sits at just 3%, via UMA oracle.
- A 3.4% Q3 print is consistent with the market's near-complete rejection of a 2026 recession scenario.
- With Q3 GDP in hand, only a catastrophic Q4 contraction could flip the annual measure negative, the odds reflect that math.
- Resolution requires full-year 2026 GDP to be negative; UMA oracle settles via official BEA data.
- Negative GDP growth in 2026 stays a long shot Polymarket 3%
- The Polymarket contract on negative GDP growth in 2026 sits at just 3%, meaning the market puts near-zero odds on a full-year contraction.
- The Q3 GDP print of 3.4%, above consensus, is consistent with this extreme long-shot pricing; the news and the market are aligned.
- Inflation running above 2% complicates the outlook but does not shift the growth picture materially at these probability levels.
- Resolves via the UMA oracle; the contract covers the full calendar year 2026, so two more quarterly prints remain before settlement.
- Negative US GDP growth in 2026 stays a long shot Polymarket 3%
- Polymarket prices negative US GDP growth in 2026 at just 3%, consistent with a strong Q3 beat of 3.4% annualized growth.
- The Q3 print directly undercuts any recession narrative; the Polymarket contract is aligned with the data, not at odds with it.
- Persistent above-target inflation complicates the picture but does not threaten growth-positive resolution of this contract.
- Polymarket resolves via UMA oracle; with Q3 final data already at 3.4%, the full-year negative GDP outcome would require a severe Q4 contraction.
- Negative US GDP in 2026 remains a long shot at 2 percent Polymarket 2%
- Polymarket puts only 2% on negative US GDP growth in 2026, via UMA oracle resolution.
- The Q2 upward revision to 2.2% is consistent with the near-zero probability the prediction market assigns to a full-year contraction.
- The September jobs miss of 29,000 is a Q4 headwind but does not materially shift the annual contraction calculus given the strong Q2 base.
- Companion Polymarket contract on Republican winning Oklahoma 3rd CD at 97% shares the UMA oracle resolver but carries no macro relevance as a cross-check.
- Negative GDP growth in 2026 stays a long shot Polymarket 2%
- Polymarket puts only 2% on negative GDP growth occurring in 2026, a near-zero probability outcome.
- The Q2 GDP upward revision to 2.2% is directly consistent with the contract's near-zero pricing of a contraction.
- Despite a weak September jobs print of 29,000, the GDP revision suggests underlying output strength the market is crediting.
- Resolution via UMA oracle based on official BEA GDP data; any revision deeper into negative territory for any 2026 quarter would be required.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/negative-gdp-growth-in-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/negative-gdp-growth-in-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("negative-gdp-growth-in-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-36YHF72CQ8",
"slug": "negative-gdp-growth-in-2026",
"question": "Will there be negative GDP growth in 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"macro-single",
"economy",
"gdp-recession",
"2026-economic-data",
"annual-growth"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 31785,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 93,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "bea.gov",
"url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}