Will the United States experience negative GDP growth in 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-29 (240D) ]

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

markets · by resolution date

polymarket 1 market

market	resolves	P(YES)		vol (24h)	vol (cum)		RCG	venue id
≤ 0	2027-01-29	9.6%		—	$28K		A	`0xd8c1b0…edf1`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	bea.gov	link	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 1 market · share this text

This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product. Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.

platform source field polymarket.description → https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/negative-gdp-growth-in-2026/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/negative-gdp-growth-in-2026.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("negative-gdp-growth-in-2026")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-36YHF72CQ8",
  "slug": "negative-gdp-growth-in-2026",
  "question": "Will the United States experience negative GDP growth in 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "economy",
    "macro-single",
    "gdp-growth",
    "recession-risk",
    "2026-economic-performance"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 1,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 27578,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 84,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "bea.gov",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →