National Bitcoin Reserve odds stay in long-shot range

{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026091505",
  "published_at": "2026-09-15T07:26:38.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-JQRXSG4ZX9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxbtcreserve-27",
  "event_question": "Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices Trump creating a National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026 at 9%, resolving via The New York Times.",
    "A House committee vote is a very early legislative step, the market at 9% reflects that committee passage does not guarantee floor votes, Senate action, or signing before year-end.",
    "Polymarket's US national Bitcoin reserve contract (CM-EVT-0F2G0B8X49) sits at 7%, a tight cross-venue gap confirming both platforms view this as a long shot for 2026.",
    "Resolution on Kalshi requires New York Times confirmation of actual reserve creation, committee action alone does not settle this contract."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Rony Roy",
          "source_url": "https://crypto.news/strategic-bitcoin-reserve-bill-set-for-house-committee-vote-wednesday/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-15T13:05:57+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill is set for a House committee vote Wednesday, advancing the legislative process for a government Bitcoin holding.",
      "publisher": "Rony Roy",
      "published_at": "2026-09-15T07:26:38.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://crypto.news/strategic-bitcoin-reserve-bill-set-for-house-committee-vote-wednesday/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 9% and Polymarket at 7% are closely aligned, with both markets treating Wednesday's committee vote as an early procedural milestone, not a decisive catalyst."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxbtcreserve-27/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXBTCRESERVE-27-JAN01",
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Rony Roy: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve bill set for House committee vote Wednesday",
      "url": "https://crypto.news/strategic-bitcoin-reserve-bill-set-for-house-committee-vote-wednesday/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-15T07:26:38.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-15T13:05:57+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}