Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve by December 31, 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-01 (212D) ]

Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve before Jan 1, 2027?

kalshi: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›

markets · by resolution date

kalshi 1 market

market	resolves	P(YES)		vol (24h)	vol (cum)		RCG	venue id
Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve before Jan 1, 2027	2027-01-01	23.0%		$116	$29K		B	`KXBTCRESERVE…N01`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	The New York Times	not provided	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 1 market · share this text

If Donald Trump has issued an executive order or his Administration takes an executive action (including signing a bill into law) creating a “Strategic Bitcoin Reserve,” “National Bitcoin Reserve,” or any other formal government-held stockpile of Bitcoin after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. For example, if the U.S. government established a program or body that is equivalent to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for Bitcoin, or the United States Bullion Depository for Bitcoin, or if Bitcoin was held in the reserves of the U.S. Department of the Treasury like its foreign exchange and SDR holdings, then the Payout Criterion would be fulfilled. This would not include merely Bitcoin confiscated pursuant to criminal or civil enforcement proceedings.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "The New York Times"

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxbtcreserve-27/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxbtcreserve-27.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxbtcreserve-27")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-JQRXSG4ZX9",
  "slug": "kxbtcreserve-27",
  "question": "Will Trump create a National Bitcoin Reserve by December 31, 2026?",
  "category": "politics",
  "tags": [
    "politics",
    "trump-bitcoin-policy",
    "cryptocurrency-regulation",
    "us-treasury-reserves",
    "2027-resolution",
    "political-commitment"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 1,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 28965,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
  "rcg_score": 75,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "The New York Times",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://www.nytimes.com/",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →