Recession outcome for end-2026 builds a premium on one venue

Name: Recession outcome for end-2026 builds a premium on one venue
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-08-01T09:56:15+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 6% vs Kalshi 12%

record: CMSIG20260801DV02 | category: cross-venue-divergence | target: CM-EVT-ZRG5DFDMZ8 | published: 2026-08-01

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi prices a recession outcome at 12%, Polymarket at 6%, a 6pp gap
Kalshi higher on ~$3K volume; Polymarket carries ~$9K, roughly 3x deeper
Definitional differences in 'recession' resolution criteria likely drive the spread as much as market depth
Resolution turns on the specific economic indicator or official body named in each venue's contract rules

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] cross_venue_spread

liquidity poly_vol_24h: $1.5K kalshi_vol_24h: $84

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.84 / 1.00
prompt_template: cross_venue_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxeconpath-26/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x9b1804352d6246bc8b609bc05a3021134269c133bda15e76e05f844539b59774
venue_b: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXECONPATH-26-STAG

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-economy-stagflation-k12-p6/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-economy-stagflation-k12-p6.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("us-economy-stagflation-k12-p6")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260801DV02",
  "published_at": "2026-08-01T09:56:15+00:00",
  "detection": "cross_venue_divergence",
  "category_tag": "CROSS_VENUE_DIVERGENCE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRG5DFDMZ8",
  "target_event_slug": "kxeconpath-26",
  "event_question": "State of the economy at the end of 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a recession outcome at 12%, Polymarket at 6%, a 6pp gap",
    "Kalshi higher on ~$3K volume; Polymarket carries ~$9K, roughly 3x deeper",
    "Definitional differences in 'recession' resolution criteria likely drive the spread as much as market depth",
    "Resolution turns on the specific economic indicator or official body named in each venue's contract rules"
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "cross_venue_spread",
      "provenance": "CM cross-venue link (question_id CMX-DF50C877D3); prices direct from venue APIs",
      "field_provenance": {
        "kalshi_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "poly_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_clob_api"
        },
        "divergence_pp": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "kalshi_price",
            "poly_price"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 1501.814837,
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 83.73
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.84,
    "prompt_template": "cross_venue_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxeconpath-26/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXECONPATH-26-STAG",
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket cross-venue record: State of the economy at the end of 2026?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/compare/us-economy-stagflation-y-2026",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-01T09:56:15+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api, polymarket_clob_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260801DV02 published 2026-08-01T09:56:15+00:00 signature sha256-35ca79b94c2… ← underlying event all signals →