State of the economy at the end of 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-13 (224D) ]

State of the economy at the end of 2026?

kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›

distribution · by resolution date

kalshi 4 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
State of the economy at the end of 2026	2027-01-13	40.0%	$120	$973	A	`KXECONPATH-2…EAT`
State of the economy at the end of 2026	2027-01-13	36.7%	$5	$7.5K	A	`KXECONPATH-26-STAG`
State of the economy at the end of 2026	2027-01-13	25.3%	—	$1.6K	A	`KXECONPATH-26-SOFT`
State of the economy at the end of 2026	2027-01-13	3.0%	—	$83	A	`KXECONPATH-2…ACK`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
kalshi	`Exchange Staff`	Federal Reserve Economic Data	link	`Kalshi Staff`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

kalshi 4 markets · share this text

If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is At least 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market closes at 8:25 AM on the day of the expected release of the inflation data for Dec 2026.

platform source field kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve Economic Data" ↗

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxeconpath-26/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxeconpath-26.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("kxeconpath-26")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRG5DFDMZ8",
  "slug": "kxeconpath-26",
  "question": "State of the economy at the end of 2026?",
  "category": "economics",
  "tags": [
    "economics",
    "economic-outlook",
    "macro-assessment",
    "eoy-2026",
    "resolution-2027",
    "subjective-judgment"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "kalshi"
  ],
  "market_count": 4,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 10178,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
  "rcg_score": 96,
  "rcg_caps": [],
  "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
  "resolution_source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE",
  "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
  "proposer_model": "platform_staff",
  "field_provenance": {
    "question": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial"
    },
    "tags": {
      "source": "clearmarket_editorial",
      "ai_drafted": true
    },
    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-06-03T14:52:43.794845+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →