State of the economy at the end of 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-13 (162D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 4 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State of the economy at the end of 2026 | 2027-01-13 | 61.7% | — | $11K | A | KXECONPATH-26-SOFT | ||
| State of the economy at the end of 2026 | 2027-01-13 | 29.5% | $61 | $2.5K | A | KXECONPATH-2…EAT | ||
| State of the economy at the end of 2026 | 2027-01-13 | 9.0% | $3 | $2.4K | A | KXECONPATH-26-STAG | ||
| State of the economy at the end of 2026 | 2027-01-13 | 3.1% | — | $120 | A | KXECONPATH-2…ACK |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve Economic Data | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is At least 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market closes at 8:25 AM on the day of the expected release of the inflation data for Dec 2026.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve Economic Data" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
Federal Reserve Economic Data venue-listed Federal Reserve Economic Data venue-listed Bureau of Labor Statistics committed source
recent wire items
- Economy-in-recession call trades far apart across venues Polymarket 9% vs Kalshi 17%
- Kalshi prices recession by end-2026 at 17%, Polymarket at 9%, an 8pp gap.
- Kalshi sits higher on thin volume; Polymarket holds the lower read with roughly 8x more cumulative activity.
- Polymarket's deeper pool likely reflects broader crowd input; Kalshi's premium may stem from a smaller, more pessimistic participant base or differing resolution criteria.
- Resolution hinges on an official or widely accepted recession determination before Jan 1, 2027, definitional ambiguity may itself explain part of the spread.
- Traders back a recession-free U.S. economy at end of 2026 69% · $18K 24h
- Kalshi prices a 69% chance the U.S. economy avoids recession or significant downturn by end of 2026.
- 31% of all-time volume, $18K, cleared in 24 hours, reflecting fresh macro-data sensitivity.
- At 69%, the market leans toward stability but leaves meaningful downside probability as rate and growth data evolve.
- Resolves based on defined economic-condition criteria at December 31, 2026.
- Odds favor a healthy economy reading at end of 2026 69% · $18K 24h
- 69% prices a 'healthy' or above-baseline economic state as the modal outcome through year-end.
- 31% of all-time volume in 24h suggests a macro event, jobs data, Fed guidance, triggered fresh positioning.
- Odds staying near 70% through a volume surge implies the crowd is reaffirming, not revising, the base case.
- Resolves against Kalshi's defined economic-condition criteria at December 31, 2026.
- 2026 economy outlook carries a premium across venues Polymarket 22% vs Kalshi 29%
- Kalshi prices the strong-economy outcome at 29%, Polymarket at 22%, a 7pp gap.
- Kalshi is the higher-priced venue; Polymarket holds deeper liquidity at roughly $49K cumulative vs Kalshi's $9K.
- Shallow volume on Kalshi may reflect a less representative sample, giving the Polymarket read more weight on a desk.
- Resolution likely turns on a designated economic scorecard or index reading before Jan 1, 2027.
- Economy-in-recession odds carry a premium across venues into year-end Polymarket 20% vs Kalshi 29%
- Kalshi prices recession at 29%, Polymarket at 20%, a 9pp spread on the same claim.
- Kalshi sits higher; Polymarket carries the dominant liquidity at roughly six times Kalshi's volume.
- Thin Kalshi book may be drifting on a narrower, potentially more pessimistic user base; Polymarket's deeper pool likely reflects broader consensus.
- Resolution hinges on an agreed definition of 'recession', definitional ambiguity may itself be widening the gap.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxeconpath-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxeconpath-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxeconpath-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRG5DFDMZ8",
"slug": "kxeconpath-26",
"question": "State of the economy at the end of 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"economic-outlook",
"macro-assessment",
"eoy-2026",
"resolution-2027",
"subjective-judgment"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 16491,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 96,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
"resolution_source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
"url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
"url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}