State of the economy at the end of 2026? [ resolves 2027-01-13 (174D) ]
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 4 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State of the economy at the end of 2026 | 2027-01-13 | 54.0% | $70 | $6.6K | A | KXECONPATH-26-SOFT | ||
| State of the economy at the end of 2026 | 2027-01-13 | 26.0% | $5 | $1.3K | A | KXECONPATH-2…EAT | ||
| State of the economy at the end of 2026 | 2027-01-13 | 12.1% | $9 | $2.9K | A | KXECONPATH-26-STAG | ||
| State of the economy at the end of 2026 | 2027-01-13 | 7.8% | — | $270 | A | KXECONPATH-2…ACK |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Federal Reserve Economic Data | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the unemployment rate (U-3) is At least 5% and CPI-U (All items) 12-month percent change is at least 3.5% in Dec 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market closes at 8:25 AM on the day of the expected release of the inflation data for Dec 2026.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Federal Reserve Economic Data" ↗ sources (3) · single authority
- Federal Reserve Economic Data venue-listed
- Federal Reserve Economic Data venue-listed
- Bureau of Labor Statistics source of record from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- Recession outcome for end-2026 builds a premium on one venue Polymarket 6% vs Kalshi 12%
- Kalshi prices a recession outcome at 12%, Polymarket at 6%, a 6pp gap
- Kalshi higher on ~$3K volume; Polymarket carries ~$9K, roughly 3x deeper
- Definitional differences in 'recession' resolution criteria likely drive the spread as much as market depth
- Resolution turns on the specific economic indicator or official body named in each venue's contract rules
- Moderate-growth economy call stays split across the major desks Polymarket 56% vs Kalshi 62%
- Kalshi prices moderate-growth outcome at 62%, Polymarket at 56%, a 5pp spread
- Kalshi higher on ~$11K volume; Polymarket deeper at ~$30K, nearly 3x more liquid
- Polymarket's lower price on the modal outcome may reflect broader outcome-bracket competition within its market
- Resolution depends on how each venue defines 'moderate growth' versus adjacent economic-state buckets
- Strong-economy verdict for 2026 carries a premium on one venue Polymarket 7% vs Kalshi 16%
- Kalshi prices a strong-economy outcome at 16%, Polymarket at 7%, a 9pp gap
- Kalshi is the higher-side venue; both markets carry relatively thin liquidity, limiting confidence in either print
- Divergence likely reflects differing resolution criteria or subjective language in how each venue defines 'strong' economy
- Resolution mechanics, who judges the economic state and by what benchmark, are the key variable to audit before trading
- Recession-economy outcome carries a premium on one major desk Polymarket 8% vs Kalshi 17%
- Kalshi prices a recession outcome at 17%, Polymarket at 8%, a 9pp gap
- Kalshi is the higher-priced venue ($4,348 cumulative volume) vs Polymarket's $7,445 book
- Differences in how each venue defines 'recession' or buckets economy states may explain the spread
- Resolves against a defined economic-condition snapshot at end of calendar year 2026
- U.S. economy end-of-2026 outlook trades apart on the major desks Polymarket 58% vs Kalshi 64%
- Kalshi prices a positive economy outcome at 64%, Polymarket at 58%, a 6pp gap
- Kalshi is the higher venue; $12K cumulative volume vs $29K on Polymarket
- Softer liquidity on Kalshi may reflect a narrower, more optimistic user base skewing the consensus
- Resolves on prevailing economic-condition classification at end of calendar year 2026
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxeconpath-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxeconpath-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxeconpath-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-ZRG5DFDMZ8",
"slug": "kxeconpath-26",
"question": "State of the economy at the end of 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"economic-outlook",
"macro-assessment",
"eoy-2026",
"resolution-2027",
"subjective-judgment"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 11117,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 96,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
"resolution_source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
"url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Federal Reserve Economic Data",
"url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}