US recession in 2026 stays near long-shot odds, gaps modestly across desks

Name: US recession in 2026 stays near long-shot odds, gaps modestly across desks
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-16T13:04:24+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 14% vs Kalshi 9%

record: CMSIG20260916DV04 | category: cross-venue-divergence | target: CM-EVT-L7017DJDX1 | published: 2026-09-16

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi prices a 2026 recession at 9%, Polymarket at 14%, a 5pp gap
Polymarket is the higher venue and holds roughly 6x Kalshi's cumulative volume
Both venues carry substantial liquidity here, making this the most credibly contested divergence in the batch
Resolution hinges on the official definition of recession applied, typically two consecutive quarters of negative GDP

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] cross_venue_spread

liquidity poly_vol_24h: $193.3K kalshi_vol_24h: $1.9K

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.84 / 1.00
prompt_template: cross_venue_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxrecssnber-26/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0xfdc73f10edf0266756686f35b5712cffa828b0940fc015e0426c76c934c2105d
venue_b: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXRECSSNBER-26

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-economy-recession-k9-p14/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-economy-recession-k9-p14.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("us-economy-recession-k9-p14")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260916DV04",
  "published_at": "2026-09-16T13:04:24+00:00",
  "detection": "cross_venue_divergence",
  "category_tag": "CROSS_VENUE_DIVERGENCE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-L7017DJDX1",
  "target_event_slug": "kxrecssnber-26",
  "event_question": "Will there be a recession in 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a 2026 recession at 9%, Polymarket at 14%, a 5pp gap",
    "Polymarket is the higher venue and holds roughly 6x Kalshi's cumulative volume",
    "Both venues carry substantial liquidity here, making this the most credibly contested divergence in the batch",
    "Resolution hinges on the official definition of recession applied, typically two consecutive quarters of negative GDP"
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "cross_venue_spread",
      "provenance": "CM cross-venue link (question_id CMX-2FB03D51D4); prices direct from venue APIs",
      "field_provenance": {
        "kalshi_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "poly_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_clob_api"
        },
        "divergence_pp": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "kalshi_price",
            "poly_price"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 193300.093286,
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 1866.53
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.84,
    "prompt_template": "cross_venue_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxrecssnber-26/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXRECSSNBER-26",
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket cross-venue record: Will there be a recession in 2026?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/compare/us-economy-recession-y-2026",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-16T13:04:24+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api, polymarket_clob_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260916DV04 published 2026-09-16T13:04:24+00:00 signature sha256-a7b99363c6d… ← underlying event all signals →