Will the United States enter a recession this year? [ resolves 2027-01-31 (192D) ]
Will there be a recession in 2026?
kalshi: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
kalshi 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be a recession in 2026 | 2027-01-31 | 10.0% | $460 | $293K | A | KXRECSSNBER-26 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| kalshi | Exchange Staff | Bureau of Economic Analysis | link | Kalshi Staff | Other | — |
verbatim rules
kalshi
If there are two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in 2025 or 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, then the market resolves to Yes.
The market will close at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or 8:25 AM ET on the morning of the expected release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP. The market will expire at the sooner of the occurrence of the event or the first 10:00 AM ET after the release of the Advance Estimate of 2026 Q4 GDP.
platform source field
kalshi.settlement_sources → "Bureau of Economic Analysis" ↗ sources (1) · single authority
- Bureau of Economic Analysis source of record venue-listed
recent wire items
- 2026 recession odds trade far apart on the major desks Polymarket 12% vs Kalshi 6%
- Kalshi puts 2026 recession odds at 6%, Polymarket at 12%, a 6pp gap with Polymarket on the higher side
- Polymarket holds dominant liquidity; Kalshi's volume is roughly one-ninth as large, making its print less anchored
- Polymarket's deeper market likely absorbs more macro-informed positioning, lending its 12% read greater credibility
- Resolution depends on an official recession call, typically NBER dating, before Dec 31, 2026
- Recession-in-2026 odds diverge, Polymarket builds the higher price Polymarket 13% vs Kalshi 8%
- Kalshi prices a 2026 recession at 8%, Polymarket at 13%, a 5pp gap
- Polymarket is higher and carries vastly deeper liquidity; Kalshi's book is comparatively thin
- Polymarket's larger, more active base may be incorporating macro data more efficiently, making its 13% the stronger signal
- Resolution typically tied to NBER official recession declaration within the 2026 calendar year
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxrecssnber-26/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/kxrecssnber-26 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("kxrecssnber-26") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-L7017DJDX1",
"slug": "kxrecssnber-26",
"question": "Will the United States enter a recession this year?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"us-economy",
"recession-prediction",
"2027",
"macroeconomic-indicator",
"economic-downturn"
],
"venues_covered": [
"kalshi"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 293020,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 96,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
"url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product",
"provenance": "platform_api"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
"proposer_model": "platform_staff",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}