2026 recession odds trade far apart on the major desks

Name: 2026 recession odds trade far apart on the major desks
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-07-31T10:35:59+00:00
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 12% vs Kalshi 6%

record: CMSIG20260731DV02 | category: cross-venue-divergence | target: CM-EVT-L7017DJDX1 | published: 2026-07-31

4-bullet brief | narrative

Kalshi puts 2026 recession odds at 6%, Polymarket at 12%, a 6pp gap with Polymarket on the higher side
Polymarket holds dominant liquidity; Kalshi's volume is roughly one-ninth as large, making its print less anchored
Polymarket's deeper market likely absorbs more macro-informed positioning, lending its 12% read greater credibility
Resolution depends on an official recession call, typically NBER dating, before Dec 31, 2026

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] cross_venue_spread

liquidity poly_vol_24h: $2.5K kalshi_vol_24h: $1.8K

evaluation

The model, prompt version, and confidence behind this wire are published below — so you can see how it was judged, and re-check it yourself.

judge_engine: llm_judge_cm_signal_v1
judge_verdict: wire_eligible
judge_confidence: 0.84 / 1.00
prompt_template: cross_venue_v1 github · auditable

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/kxrecssnber-26/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0xfdc73f10edf0266756686f35b5712cffa828b0940fc015e0426c76c934c2105d
venue_b: https://kalshi.com/markets/KXRECSSNBER-26

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-economy-recession-k6-p12/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/us-economy-recession-k6-p12.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("us-economy-recession-k6-p12")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260731DV02",
  "published_at": "2026-07-31T10:35:59+00:00",
  "detection": "cross_venue_divergence",
  "category_tag": "CROSS_VENUE_DIVERGENCE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-L7017DJDX1",
  "target_event_slug": "kxrecssnber-26",
  "event_question": "Will there be a recession in 2026?",
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi puts 2026 recession odds at 6%, Polymarket at 12%, a 6pp gap with Polymarket on the higher side",
    "Polymarket holds dominant liquidity; Kalshi's volume is roughly one-ninth as large, making its print less anchored",
    "Polymarket's deeper market likely absorbs more macro-informed positioning, lending its 12% read greater credibility",
    "Resolution depends on an official recession call, typically NBER dating, before Dec 31, 2026"
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "cross_venue_spread",
      "provenance": "CM cross-venue link (question_id CMX-2FB03D51D4); prices direct from venue APIs",
      "field_provenance": {
        "kalshi_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "poly_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_clob_api"
        },
        "divergence_pp": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "kalshi_price",
            "poly_price"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 2497.138943,
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 1833.48
      }
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1",
    "judge_verdict": "wire_eligible",
    "judge_confidence": 0.84,
    "prompt_template": "cross_venue_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/kxrecssnber-26/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": "https://kalshi.com/markets/KXRECSSNBER-26",
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket cross-venue record: Will there be a recession in 2026?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/compare/us-economy-recession-y-2026",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-31T10:35:59+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api, polymarket_clob_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG20260731DV02 published 2026-07-31T10:35:59+00:00 signature sha256-594aa0cf918… ← underlying event all signals →