Hormuz traffic back to normal by year-end stays a long shot

Name: Hormuz traffic back to normal by year-end stays a long shot
Creator: ClearMarket
Published: 2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Polymarket 16%

record: CMSIG2026091308 | category: momentum-repricing | target: CM-EVT-LCPV825X09 | published: 2026-09-13

4-bullet brief | narrative

Polymarket puts 16% on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, 2026, resolving via UMA oracle.
The breakdown of the Oman-brokered Gulf-Iran talks is consistent with the market's heavy skepticism on normalization within the year.
An Iranian cargo vessel was struck near Qeshm Island on the same day talks collapsed, adding fresh operational risk the market was already pricing.
At 16%, the contract signals the market sees normalization as unlikely absent a major diplomatic breakthrough not yet in sight.

atomic briefs | structured for retrieval

[01] news_event

significance

surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market

story: Diplomatic talks on a Hormuz transit framework collapsed after Saudi Arabia called off a high-level Oman-brokered meeting with Iran amid escalating Houthi and militia threats.exa_search → Mohammed Ghobari · as_of 2026-09-14T14:41:02+00:00
publisher: Mohammed Ghobari
published_at: 2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z
source_url: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/diplomacy-stumbles-with-postponement-meeting-strait-hormuz-proposal-2026-09-13/

[02] pm_response

interp: Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle on whether Hormuz transit volumes return to pre-disruption normal levels before January 1, 2027.llm_judge_cm_signal_v1

evaluation

News-cycle wires publish on coverage, not editorial selection — the day’s top stories matched to the prediction markets pricing them, so nothing is cherry-picked.

judge_engine: none — deterministic news-cycle scan
judge_verdict: auto_published
judge_confidence: n/a — no judge gate (deterministic publishing)
prompt_template: news_cycle_v1 github · auditable
match_method: entity_slug_match (mechanical)

citation graph

Every wire traces back to the ClearMarket event it is built on, and out to each venue’s own market page — so any figure here can be verified at its source.

internal

cm_event: /events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/

external

venue_a: polymarket · 0x5c79dfde05559b79a9cb9f7c4187e4d49632dd042572ae676952f812732591cc

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (contains embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/strait-of-hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-16-2026-09-13/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/strait-of-hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-16-2026-09-13.json`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_signal("strait-of-hormuz-normal-by-dec-31-polymarket-16-2026-09-13")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 PM data: platform APIs (hourly refresh). News context: retrieved with source citations. Editorial judgment: LLM judge with prompt template versioned per wire type. Per-claim provenance inline above; full per-field provenance map at the JSON endpoint under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026091308",
  "published_at": "2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z",
  "detection": "news_cycle",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
  "target_event_slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
  "event_question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts 16% on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, 2026, resolving via UMA oracle.",
    "The breakdown of the Oman-brokered Gulf-Iran talks is consistent with the market's heavy skepticism on normalization within the year.",
    "An Iranian cargo vessel was struck near Qeshm Island on the same day talks collapsed, adding fresh operational risk the market was already pricing.",
    "At 16%, the contract signals the market sees normalization as unlikely absent a major diplomatic breakthrough not yet in sight."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Mohammed Ghobari",
          "source_url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/diplomacy-stumbles-with-postponement-meeting-strait-hormuz-proposal-2026-09-13/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-14T14:41:02+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Diplomatic talks on a Hormuz transit framework collapsed after Saudi Arabia called off a high-level Oman-brokered meeting with Iran amid escalating Houthi and militia threats.",
      "publisher": "Mohammed Ghobari",
      "published_at": "2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/diplomacy-stumbles-with-postponement-meeting-strait-hormuz-proposal-2026-09-13/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle on whether Hormuz transit volumes return to pre-disruption normal levels before January 1, 2027."
    }
  ],
  "evaluation": {
    "judge_engine": "none — deterministic news-cycle scan",
    "judge_verdict": "auto_published",
    "judge_confidence": null,
    "prompt_template": "news_cycle_v1"
  },
  "citations": {
    "internal": {
      "cm_event": "/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/",
      "related": []
    },
    "external": {
      "venue_a": null,
      "venue_b": null,
      "benchmark": null
    }
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Mohammed Ghobari: Diplomacy stumbles with postponement of meeting on Strait of Hormuz pr",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/diplomacy-stumbles-with-postponement-meeting-strait-hormuz-proposal-2026-09-13/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-14T14:41:02+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  }
}
 
   PROVENANCE PROTOCOL v0.2 · [direct] venue api · [mediated] grounded web fetch + source url · [derived] computed from listed inputs · [editorial] versioned llm judgment · full spec /schema/provenance/v1

record CMSIG2026091308 published 2026-09-13T00:00:00.000Z signature sha256-f1204a819d3… ← underlying event all signals →