Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 8.0% | $221K | $7.05M | A | 0x5c79df…91cc |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 sources (3) · single authority
portwatch.imf.org venue-listed IMF Portwatch committed source https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 from rules text
recent wire items
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by year-end stays a long shot Polymarket 10%
- The Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 is priced at 10%, reflecting low confidence in a near-term resolution.
- The latest tanker incidents in the Persian Gulf are consistent with the low-odds pricing; active interdiction operations directly undercut any near-term normalization thesis.
- Trump acknowledged the Iran war hurt Republicans in the midterms, raising the political pressure to seek a resolution, but markets are not yet pricing any ceasefire pathway.
- Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle; the question hinges on a broadly accepted definition of 'normal' traffic, which adds judgment risk to settlement.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by year-end stays a long shot Polymarket 11%
- The Polymarket contract puts only 11% odds on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31.
- Active IRGC operations in the strait, including tanker fires reported today, are consistent with the market's low-probability read on near-term normalization.
- The separate Polymarket contract on the Iranian regime falling before 2027 sits at just 3%, suggesting the market sees neither a quick end to the conflict nor a regime collapse as likely.
- Resolves via Polymarket's UMA oracle; definition of 'normal traffic' is the key settlement edge case given disputed reporting on transit volumes.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization stays a long shot Polymarket 12%
- Polymarket prices Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 at just 12%.
- Fresh US strikes on Iranian targets are consistent with the low probability: the market sees very little chance of full normalization within two months.
- Iran's parallel diplomatic signals from President Pezeshkian have not moved the needle toward a higher probability, per current pricing.
- A companion question on whether the US and Iran will sign a deal has no live price, leaving the Polymarket Hormuz contract as the clearest quantified read on conflict resolution odds.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal stays a long shot Polymarket 11%
- Polymarket puts Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 at just 11%, a strong long-shot read despite diplomatic optimism.
- US strikes on Qeshm Island and ongoing indirect talks are pulling in opposite directions; the market is pricing the military escalation as the dominant signal.
- Companion Polymarket contract on Israel reopening its embassy in Iran sits at 4%, consistent with the market view that normalization remains very distant.
- Resolution via Polymarket UMA oracle; definition of 'normal' traffic levels is a key settlement edge case given ongoing blockade and transit restrictions.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by year-end stays a long shot Polymarket 13%
- Polymarket prices Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 at just 13%, a strong long-shot read.
- Tehran's conditional offer via Qatar is a significant diplomatic signal, but the Polymarket contract shows markets are not treating it as a near-certain breakthrough.
- The gap between the headline optimism and the 13% contract price reflects skepticism about US acceptance and implementation speed.
- Iran nuclear test (CM-EVT-YQ6BFV3GX1 at 4%) and NPT withdrawal (CM-EVT-BR5SMCCW00 at 7%) contracts suggest markets see escalation as unlikely but not zero.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
"slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
"question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"middle-east",
"energy-security",
"shipping-logistics",
"2026",
"iran-sanctions"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 7053960,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "IMF Portwatch",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "portwatch.imf.org",
"url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "IMF Portwatch",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}