Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (161D) ]
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 48.0% | $52K | $5.69M | A | 0x5c79df…91cc |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 sources (3) · single authority
- portwatch.imf.org venue-listed
- IMF Portwatch source of record from rules text · editorial
- https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
- Hormuz traffic returning to normal by year-end sits near 50 percent Polymarket 47%
- Polymarket prices 47% on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31.
- Truce collapse and White House warnings of fresh Iran strikes push the resolution scenario further out, keeping the contract near but just below 50%.
- At 47%, the Polymarket contract signals genuine two-way uncertainty, with five months remaining and an active military standoff as the key variable.
- Companion Kalshi contract CM-EVT-ZP3JDLXZQ0 implies peak single-day transit calls in the 10-15 range, consistent with significantly reduced but not fully halted traffic.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic return by year-end near 50% Polymarket 56%
- Polymarket prices a 56% probability that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31, 2026.
- Iran's rejection of the Omani management proposal and continued missile exchanges are consistent with a market near 50-50 on normalization within the year.
- A companion near-term Polymarket contract on Hormuz normalizing by July 31 sits at 0%, showing markets see no imminent resolution.
- Resolves via UMA oracle; the 56% by year-end versus 0% by July 31 gap captures the market's view that resolution, if it comes, is months away.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic back to normal by year-end near 50 percent Polymarket 55%
- The Polymarket contract puts 55% odds on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, resolving via UMA oracle.
- Two days of US-Iran ceasefire and active diplomacy are consistent with the slight majority odds on normalization, but the narrow margin reflects continued uncertainty.
- Companion ladder CM-EVT-ZP6006CHN9 prices monthly Hormuz transit calls at 30-40, well below pre-conflict levels, showing markets are not yet pricing a swift recovery in throughput.
- The 45% probability against normalization by year-end reflects the pace of diplomacy required: a formal deal would need to materialize and shipping confidence restore within roughly five months.
- Strait of Hormuz back to normal by year-end sits near 50% Polymarket 51%
- Polymarket prices a 51% chance the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal shipping traffic by December 31, 2026, essentially a coin flip.
- Escalating strikes on night 13, Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers, and Iran rejecting a ceasefire are all consistent with a market stuck near 50% rather than pricing swift resolution.
- A separate Polymarket contract (CM-EVT-4J73Y3RD96) prices only 1% on Hormuz returning to normal by July 31, the term structure shows the market sees recovery as a late-year possibility at best.
- The Kalshi ladder (CM-EVT-ZP3JDLXZQ0) implies peak single-day Hormuz transit calls in the 10-15 range, with 71% above 10 but only 16% above 15, consistent with severely reduced but not zero traffic.
- Hormuz year-end normalization stays near 50% amid war escalation Polymarket 54%
- Polymarket prices 54% on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31.
- Continued nightly US strikes and a collapsed ceasefire effort leave the market only marginally above 50%, reflecting deep uncertainty.
- The 1% July contract on the same outcome confirms markets see no near-term off-ramp, loading all probability mass into Q4.
- Resolves via UMA oracle against a definition of 'normal' Hormuz transit volumes.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
"slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
"question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"middle-east",
"energy-security",
"shipping-logistics",
"2026",
"iran-sanctions"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 5692811,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "IMF Portwatch",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "portwatch.imf.org",
"url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "IMF Portwatch",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}