Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31 | 2026-12-31 | 17.0% | $221K | $7.05M | A | 0x5c79df…91cc |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 sources (3) · single authority
portwatch.imf.org venue-listed IMF Portwatch committed source https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730 from rules text
recent wire items
- Hormuz traffic back to normal by year-end stays a long shot Polymarket 16%
- Polymarket puts 16% on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, 2026, resolving via UMA oracle.
- The breakdown of the Oman-brokered Gulf-Iran talks is consistent with the market's heavy skepticism on normalization within the year.
- An Iranian cargo vessel was struck near Qeshm Island on the same day talks collapsed, adding fresh operational risk the market was already pricing.
- At 16%, the contract signals the market sees normalization as unlikely absent a major diplomatic breakthrough not yet in sight.
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by year-end stays unlikely Polymarket 19%
- The Polymarket contract prices Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 at 19%, resolving via UMA oracle.
- Fresh attack reports on Hormuz shipping are consistent with the market's heavily skeptical stance on near-term normalization.
- A parallel Saudi pipeline attack blamed on Iran-backed Iraqi militias (Story 29) adds further regional supply disruption context that reinforces the low normalization probability.
- Houthi advances in Yemen (Story 22) compound the threat picture; the market's 19% is pricing persistent, multi-front pressure on regional shipping lanes through year-end.
- Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by year-end stays below 25% Polymarket 21%
- Polymarket puts 21% on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, keeping the outcome a long shot.
- Houthi seizure of the Red Sea coast and strategic islands, combined with the Saudi East-West pipeline shutdown from drone strikes, deepens the disruption narrative.
- The 21% pricing implies the market sees a roughly four-in-five chance that shipping disruption persists through year-end, consistent with escalating rather than de-escalating conflict.
- Polymarket resolves via UMA oracle; 'normal' traffic would need to be defined against a pre-conflict baseline, creating resolution ambiguity if partial recovery occurs.
- Strait of Hormuz return to normal by year-end stays unlikely Polymarket 18%
- Polymarket prices only 18% on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31, 2026.
- Houthi seizure of the Bab al-Mandab is a distinct chokepoint from Hormuz, but the combined shipping disruption signals deepening regional instability that is consistent with the low 18% pricing.
- Iran hitting a US drone in the Hormuz Strait (Story 27) and 96 vessels diverted adds further evidence the market's skeptical stance reflects current ground truth.
- Resolves via UMA oracle; settlement requires documented evidence of normal commercial shipping transit volumes through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Strait of Hormuz back to normal by year-end stays a long shot Polymarket 16%
- The Polymarket contract on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by December 31 sits at 16%, resolving via UMA oracle.
- Iran's decision to widen its maritime no-go zone beyond Hormuz is consistent with the 16% pricing: the market was already treating a year-end resolution as unlikely, and the escalation does nothing to improve those odds.
- A companion story shows Iran and the US exchanging tanker strikes in the Gulf of Oman in the largest maritime attack wave since the conflict began, reinforcing the low-probability read on a near-term normalization.
- Trump separately said the Iran war would end after the US midterms, a political timeline not yet priced into the Hormuz contract, which would require cessation of hostilities within roughly three months.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-LCPV825X09",
"slug": "strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31",
"question": "Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal by December 31?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"geopolitics",
"middle-east",
"energy-security",
"shipping-logistics",
"2026",
"iran-sanctions"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 7053960,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 90,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "IMF Portwatch",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "portwatch.imf.org",
"url": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "IMF Portwatch",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}